After months of negotiations, the two blocs finally settled on an initial trade framework late on Sunday night. The salient point of the agreement is that EU goods will now face a blanket 15% tariff when exported to the US. As usual, both sides are claiming victory over the outcome, but the fact is that the 15% tariff is far higher than anything the EU has faced before. With that said, the figure is certainly more appealing than the 30% tariff that the EU would have faced had a deal not been established. As EU head Ursula von der Leyen herself admitted, the trade deal was “the best we could get”. The figure also matches the 15% tariff agreed upon as part of last week’s trade deal with Japan, setting a strong precedent for future trade agreements. Thursday marks the end of July, which means that countries around the world only have a few days left to lock in trade deals before the August tariff deadline comes into effect. So far, the UK, the EU, Japan and a number of South-East Asian countries have been able to secure their positions, but negotiations with some of America’s largest trading partners remain in limbo.
All three major US stock indices closed in the green last Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hitting new record highs. The S&P 500 enjoyed a particularly impressive five-day streak by establishing a new record high every single day of the week. Futures contracts are trading higher still in light of the new deal trade with the EU.
Where to begin? The August deadline on Friday may provide some unexpected drama as countries scramble to escape the incoming tariffs, but there are enough planned events to keep traders very busy this week. Tuesday offers the first glimpse into the US labour market in the form of the latest JOLT survey. Wednesday follows along in the same vein with the ADP employment change, while providing the latest GDP figures from the EU and the US. Two interest rate decisions are also scheduled for Wednesday, firstly from the Bank of Canada, then later on from the Federal Reserve. Neither is expected to enact a rate cut this time round, but the accompanying commentary may provide something for traders chew on. On Thursday morning, the Band of Japan is expected to hold rates steady on the Yen, while later in the day markets will have to come to terms with the latest PCE Price Index, which is forecast to show a slight uptick in US inflation. As if that were not enough, Non-Farm Payrolls hit the newswires on Friday, with 102k new jobs expected and a 4.2% unemployment rate. On top of the above, earnings season steps up a notch this week with Visa (V) reporting on Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT) and META on Wednesday, then Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Mastercard (MA) on Thursday.
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