Financial Analyst/Content Writer, RADEX MARKETS
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
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Traders are less convinced than ever of an incoming rate cut. FedWatch is now suggesting that rates will be maintained at 4% during the next meeting on the 10th of December. Economic uncertainty is brewing and markets are growing fearful that more substantial pullbacks may be on the cards. US indices were a mixed bag last week, as the rally in tech stocks appeared to stall. The real drama however unfolded in precious metals and cryptocurrencies. Gold prices fell by 2% on Friday to close the week at $4,085, while silver lost over 3% to fall back to $50.50 per ounce.
Last Friday, Bitcoin finally gave up on six-figure prices, falling to $94,000 and staying there for the remainder of the weekend. The title of “digital gold” seems increasingly hard to defend given Bitcoin’s lacklustre performance over the summer, especially when compared to the massive rallies observed in precious metals. Bitcoin has notched several record highs so far this year, but so too has almost everything else. Gold is up 55% year-to-date, silver is up 75% over the same time frame, the S&P 500 is up 14%, the FTSE 100 is up 18%, the Nikkei 225 is up 25%, the list goes on. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is up around 2% and major altcoins are down by double-digit percentages. A dart thrown at a dartboard would have yielded better results.
Despite the dismal mood pervading crypto at the moment, there is still reason for optimism, as a number of institutions have continued to invest in Bitcoin ETFs. Most notable among them was the Harvard University endowment, which recently disclosed a $443 million stake in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), representing 20% of the university’s US-listed holdings.
There is also the growing question of Bitcoin dominance, which has been exhibiting some strange behaviour during recent dumps. Typically, drops in the price of Bitcoin would prompt even larger drops in the wider altcoin market, leading to an increase in Bitcoin dominance. Recently however, the correlation has fallen apart, with altcoins holding up relatively well and the wider crypto market actually faring better than Bitcoin itself.
The economic calendar is looking sparse again this week, with the exception of three major events. Earnings season is drawing to a close, but one major player has yet to report: Nvidia (NVDA). The chipmaker will publish third quarter earnings late on Wednesday, and given the ongoing question of a possible AI bubble, the report could provide pivotal insight into the health of the wider tech sector. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will at long last publish the September NFP figures, initially set for release on the 3rd of October. Markets have been starving for such information for over six weeks at this point, but the wait is finally over. Later in the day, the Fed will publish the minutes from the October FOMC meeting. The additional comments from various board members may offer some clues as to the general sentiment of the Fed, which will no doubt influence expectations for the December meeting.
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