There is an ongoing shift in expectations with regards to the next Fed decision. Markets are starting to lean more heavily towards an interest rate cut, perhaps as early as next month. The Fed itself has begun to soften its tone on the matter, with a number of board members now sympathetic to the idea. US stocks are certainly optimistic. The Dow Jones rose 400 points yesterday but the bigger story lies with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Both indices came comically close to breaking their record highs yesterday, but would eventually settle just beneath them. The S&P 500 closed a mere 3 points away from its all-time high, while the Nasdaq Comp was similarly only a handful of points away.
With the PCE price index set for publication later today, markets may get the justification they need to push both indices to new highs. The index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and will be used to determine whether the central bank’s 2% target remains in sight. Inflationary pressures in the US have decreased consistently since the start of the year. Should the newest data print follow suit, the Fed will have all the justification it needs to consider a cut on the 29th of July.
On the Dollar front, the DXY appears to have taken the plunge. The index is now down to the low-97 mark while competing currencies continue to push higher against the Greenback. Despite the weakness in the Dollar, gold is once again struggling to maintain any positive momentum, falling below $3,300 an ounce this morning. Silver on the other hand appears to be consolidating its position around $36, with ample room to move in either direction. The main event however is currently unfolding in platinum, which broke above $1,400 an ounce yesterday, a threshold not seen since 2014.
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