Last week ended on a slightly more pessimistic note following comments from Jerome Powell, resulting in minor losses for all three major US indices. The Federal Reserve Chairman said nothing that has not already been priced in for weeks at this point, but markets were still left a little disappointed by the wait-and-see approach the central bank has committed itself to. The Fed is concerned about potential inflationary pressures caused by disruptions to trade, although such fears have not materialised as of yet. This may change tomorrow however with the publication of US CPI figures. Current predictions are pointing to a 0.3% increase in headline prices last month, translating to a 2.4% inflation rate year-on-year. Headline inflation actually fell into negative territory in March, something not observed since 2020. Should the April figures show a similar trend, the prevailing narrative at the Fed will be called into question. No fewer than six Fed board members are set to speak over the coming week, including Powell himself, possibly offering clues as to how united the different board members are on the matter.
The mood remains jovial among crypto traders. Bitcoin has spent the last few days reacquainting itself with six figure valuations and is now sitting around $104k, a small step away from its record high of $109k established back in January. Crucially, Bitcoin dominance has taken a sizeable hit, falling from a peak of 65% down to 63% at the time of writing. A number of cryptocurrencies have undergone significant rallies in recent days, not least Ethereum, which has gained a staggering 40% since last week. Calls for “alt season” are arguably a little premature, but as always with crypto, things move fast.
The economic calendar has very little to offer this week, besides the aforementioned CPI drop and various Fed board member speeches. There may be more developments relating to tariffs, particularly with China, after a meeting in Switzerland between US and Chinese delegations apparently yielded positive results.
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