January 20, 2025
Today is the day. In a few hours, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States. Although US markets are closed, traders would do well to stay alert for any unexpected developments or announcements from the incoming administration. Market participants should be habituated to this by now, but expect the unexpected. Any mention of tariffs or trade wars or even any cryptocurrency related announcements could violently swing the needle. The economic calendar is more or less empty for the day so all eyes are on the incoming president.
For those who missed the drama over the weekend, Donald Trump released his very own meme coin on Saturday, aptly named “TRUMP”. The token, released on the Solana blockchain, initially sold for around $10 before reaching over $70 on Sunday, briefly pushing it into the top 15 largest market caps in the cryptocurrency sphere. Ethics of the token release can be debated ad nauseum, but the message is clear: the new administration is vocally pro-crypto.
The Dollar appears stable this morning, the DXY remaining comfortably above 109 despite a minor drop in early trading hours. As already mentioned, the NYSE is closed today so nothing going on there. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will have to come to a decision on the next interest rate target for the Yen. Traders are currently predicting a 25 bps rise to 0.5%. A lot of money rests on the difference in interest rates between the Dollar and the Yen, in fact the last time the BoJ intervened markets went absolutely haywire.
Uncertainty is back on the menu. The inauguration is now only three days away and many traders appear to have rebalanced their risk appetite. Gold finally saw some decent inflows this week, which pushed the precious metal to $2,725 an ounce during yesterday’s session, the highest valuation seen for over a month. The incoming president is nothing if not unpredictable and his first days in office could make for volatile trading conditions.
Cryptocurrency markets also made a move over the past few days, which saw bitcoin prices breach $100k once again and push as high as $102k in the early hours of this morning. Crypto markets obviously do not qualify as safe-haven assets, rather the optimism stems from the expectation that the new regime will be far more accommodating to the technology itself, especially in terms of regulatory clarity. For traders and developers alike, the previous four years have been somewhat difficult to navigate and many will be hoping to see an end of the quagmire. In a recent interview, Blackrock’s ETF chief, Samara Cohen, predicted that cryptocurrency deregulation would propel bitcoin to another historic year. Time will tell.
Oil prices took another step higher on Wednesday, as US crude inventories fell to their lowest level since 2022. Import-export dynamics continue to be the main driver behind the price action, but once again the incoming Trump presidency could throw an additional spanner in the works in the form of tariffs or sanctions. Futures for Brent crude and WTI rose to $82 and $80 a barrel respectively.
Greenback pulls back ahead of inflation data. Markets eagerly await the latest bout of CPI data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics later today. The Federal Reserve will also be keeping an eye on the release, as higher than expected numbers will spoil any appetite to reduce interest rates. Before the US data however, currency traders would do well to pay attention to the UK inflation rate. The Pound Sterling has been under immense pressure recently, wicking as low as $1.21 on Monday. Confidence in the UK economy remains low and the inflation report later today could do even more damage if the numbers do not meet predictions.
Staying on the topic of inflation, the Eurozone will publish its own figures on Friday. Weakness in the Dollar allowed the Euro to reclaim $1.03 yesterday but the common currency remains in a difficult position. CPI reports are all well and good but pale in significance to what is right around the corner: the inauguration of Donald Trump. Only five days to go before the big day and talk of trade tariffs are rife, to say nothing of some of the wilder ideas being thrown around, such as the possibility of purchasing Greenland.
The prospect of fewer interest rate cuts from the Fed certainly left in a dent in asset prices over the past month or two, not least in the crypto markets. Bitcoin underwent a violent reversal on Monday however, falling all the way down to $89k before shooting back up to $97k at the time of writing.
Huge non-farm payrolls numbers wreaked havoc last Friday. The headline number came in at 256k new jobs, almost 100k more than expected. The unemployment figure also unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% previously. Strong US employment figures are nothing new at this point, the American labour market has consistently demonstrated its resilience in recent months. Nevertheless, traders were once again taken aback on Friday following the NFP publication, particularly in the foreign exchange markets.
The Dollar pushed higher yet again, briefly taking the DXY to within a hair’s breadth of 110 and dragging Cable and the Euro to new lows. The price action continued this morning in the Asian session, with the Pound reaching into low $1.21 territory and the Euro barely above $1.02 at the time of writing. Odds of an interest rate cut on the Greenback during the next Fed meeting essentially fell to zero following the strong jobs report. In the eyes of many, there is simply no justification to bring rates down given the current situation. US stocks took the news badly, with all major indices falling sharply.
Gold gained 0.7% last Friday to close at $2,689 an ounce but the more interesting move in commodities came from the oil markets. Crude prices skyrocketed following news of more sanctions against Russian oil tankers and maritime insurance providers. Dwindling US stockpiles also contributed to the move, which saw Brent Crude push past $80 a barrel and WTI to $77 this morning. The sanctions would target more than 180 tankers carrying Russian oil.
Markets poised for non-farm payrolls later today. The charts have been relatively calm over the last few days but all that could change in a few hours in the event of surprise US employment data. The headline figure is expected to come in at 160k new jobs, with unemployment remaining at 4.2%.
Gold managed to get some momentum going this week, closing higher three days in a row and reaching $2,670 an ounce on Thursday. The precious metal remains over $100 below its record high set in October of last year.
The rise came despite a renewed show of strength in the Dollar, which has also clawed its way higher over the last three days, pushing the DXY to 109.1 by yesterday’s close. The push contributed to significant woes for the Pound Sterling, which plunged below $1.23 on Thursday, a 14-month low for the currency. Bond traders will be aware that yields on UK gilts have been rising substantially in recent months. The 30-year gilt in particular has seen rates rise above 5.4% this week, the highest since 1998. The selloff in gilts, coupled with a weakness in the Pound, reflects a lack of fiscal confidence in the UK government. Stagnant growth, sticky inflation and more expensive debt servicing combine to paint a rather bleak tableau. Across the Channel, things are not looking much brighter for the Euro. The common currency remains above parity but is facing a largely similar threat. The Greenback has reasserted itself and other currencies have every right to be fearful.
The typical new year resolution yields absolutely no results whatsoever. So instead of learning to fly a helicopter, going on a diet or hitting a four-plate bench-press, try opting for something a little more pragmatic. Here are five new year trading resolutions:
We’ve all been there. Sometimes it can feel like the entire world is conspiring to stop you from making money. Somehow every trade seems to go wrong, in a way that seems astronomically implausible. You go long only to find you sniped the absolute top with microscopic precision. You abandon the trade to go short and by some miracle the trend reverses again the instant you place the order. If someone were to do the exact opposite of your trades, they would be unfathomably rich. The market is mocking you. You are the ultimate counter-signal. Everyone point and laugh.
Of course, none of the above is true, but it can definitely feel like it. Take a step back from the screen. Get some air. Calm down. As much as we like to pretend otherwise, most of the time we are not rational creatures. Sometimes the best thing to do is to walk away and come back another day with a clear head.
A lot of traders refuse to give up on a bad trade. We stubbornly cling on to a position in the hopes of extracting something out of it, deluding ourselves into believing we can get out of a massive drawdown. We hang on like grim death, adding funds to push the margin call just a little bit further away. 90% down on a position? No. Everyone else is wrong. I’ll show them. I’ll show them all.
The truth is that even if a trader does manage to claw their way out of a sticky situation, trading and swap fees can quickly eat away at any profit. More importantly however is the opportunity cost of hanging on to a bad trade. The margin tied up in a losing battle could probably be used to much greater effect if it were deployed elsewhere. Revenge trading rarely leads to anything good. A bad trade is like a bad relationship. Better to rip off the bandage and move on.
This one sounds easy but almost no one actually does it. The whole point of writing things down is to hammer home what went right and what went wrong. Why did this trade go badly? Write down the reason. Learn from your mistakes. Much harder to ignore failure when you have to settle down and justify it.
This has never been easier. There are a bunch of online trading journals that will synchronise with your trading platform and provide a detailed analysis of your performance. This will allow you to identify recurring errors and eliminate them. A lot of the time a trader may have a winning strategy but fail anyway because they don’t stick with it or simply because they close trades too early. A journal will help rectify this.
An alternative is to physically write down your trades. Pen and paper. Bring forth your inner aristocrat. Go and buy a leather-bound ledger and a quill. Like Ebenezer Scrooge.
There are times when pushing forward in the face of adversity can be very rewarding, but when it comes to trading this is usually not so. As hard as it is to admit, sometimes we are just wrong. We may have worked hard on carving out an advantage, carefully tailoring our system, perfecting it, adopting it. We grow attached to it. Unfortunately, if a certain strategy fails more often than it succeeds then it needs to be mercilessly abandoned. As someone may or may not have said: “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.
The world of trading is not an isolated ecosystem. It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that market movements are totally detached from reality but this simply is not true. Entire books of intricate trading setups will be swept aside in an instant should a significant financial event suddenly hit the newswires. A surprise interest rate decision? Poor non-farm payroll data? A sudden declaration of war? Kiss your setup goodbye. The Federal Reserve laughs at your Elliott Wave analysis. Tanks are being loaded onto military cargo planes as we speak. Get those candlesticks out of here.
Like many other aspects of your trading journey, this is something we at RADEX MARKETS can help you with. The economic calendar and regular financial news updates we provide will put your trades into context and give you the bigger picture. Here’s to a successful 2025.
Risk Warning : Trading derivatives and leveraged products carries a high level of risk.
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