Far too early to call with any real degree of conviction but the Dollar finally appeared to make a stand last week. The DXY briefly reached all the way down below 98 before managing to climb back up to a respectable weekly close in the green. Recent developments have not been kind to the Greenback, to put it mildly. The Euro is now at its strongest versus the Dollar in three years, while safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc are at their highest levels in well over a decade. Pick any currency from the menu and chances are the Dollar is currently facing yearly lows against it.

On the other side of the equation, gold has thrived so far this year, culminating in yet another record high last week. The precious metal tapped $3,500 an ounce last Tuesday, which is all the more insane given that prices were a mere $2,600 just four months ago. The jubilation was sadly short-lived, as subsequent profit-taking dragged gold down to a weekly close in the red, painting a nasty looking candle along the way.

The uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to be the main driver behind market sentiment but the fog of war may finally be starting to clear. New trade deals will take time to establish but early signs are allowing some investors to be cautiously optimistic. All three major US indices closed in the green last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite in particular gaining 4.6% and 6.7% respectively. Stock markets in Europe and Asia also continued to display positive momentum, with the former having all but shrugged off the recent selling spree.

Fundamentals will once again have their part to play this coming week, which is a big one in terms of economic data and company earnings. No fewer than 180 companies within the S&P 500 are set to publish their quarterly earnings this week, including the likes of Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT) and many more. The economic calendar also has a lot to offer starting on Wednesday with the latest PCE Price Index, which is expected to show significant drops in inflation figures. ADP employment numbers will also drop on the same day, but traders will already have their eye on the more impactful Non-Farm Payrolls later in the week. Last month’s figures wildly surpassed expectations so it will be interesting to see if there are any revisions to the previous publication or if the April figures show the same trend. Of course, any news relating to the ongoing tariff situation has the potential to move markets at any time, as will any developments concerning Ukraine for that matter. Busy week ahead.

The hysteria pervading financial markets has dissipated somewhat over the past few days. US stock indices have enjoyed three consecutive days of gains and the same is true for many European markets, which have all but fully recovered from the tariff fear induced selloff. The latter half of the week has provided grounds for optimism with regards to establishing new trade agreements between the US and various parts of the world. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who had previously urged countries to come forward “with their A game”, announced yesterday that South Korea had done just that, stating that a trade deal was moving along quickly. While some parts of the world are eager to re-establish strong trading arrangements, the US and China remain stubbornly at odds.

Economic data from the United States continues to send out mixed signals. Data published on Wednesday revealed that the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in April, beating expectations of just 49 and indicating that the sector remains in expansion. Services on the other hand fell to 51.4 versus expectations of 52.5, also showing a sector in expansion despite the slowdown. The question of the Dollar is still a confusing one. The next Fed decision is now less than two weeks away and market participants appear increasingly unwilling to predict the outcome of the meeting.

Gold may also be debating its place in the rapidly evolving financial landscape. The precious metal is now a sizeable step away from Tuesday’s record high, awaiting the next geopolitical catalyst before deciding on its next move. It is much the same for markets at large, scheduled events have been pushed to the side for now and traders will have to maintain a wait-and-see approach.

The latest Fed vs Trump narrative pushed gold all the way to $3,500 an ounce on Tuesday. Markets seemed to be under the assumption that the US president was moments away from dissolving the entire organisation, but alas it was not to be. Late last night, Donald Trump made it clear he had “no intention of firing him”, referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Gold dropped significantly following the statement and is now struggling to pick a path this morning.

The volatility in precious metals extended to currencies, resulting in erratic movements across all major pairs. The Dollar gained on the latest developments, in particular detriment to the Swiss Franc, which fell a massive 1.9% against the Greenback yesterday. Despite the recent show of strength, the DXY remains below 100 and the Dollar is still near multi-year lows. Just as with gold, currencies cannot seem to commit to one direction or another so far today.

Fundamentals matter very little in the current environment and for the time being financial markets remain at the mercy of the Whitehouse. For once, this suited cryptocurrencies, which were thrilled to witness the new SEC chairman Paul Atkins sworn in on Monday. Trump stated that Atkins was “the perfect man” to lead the SEC, adding that crypto markets were desperate for “regulatory certainty and clear rules of the road”. The previous SEC chairman, Gary Gensler, had been notoriously hostile towards the fledgling industry. The new appointment is unanimously viewed as a move in the right direction. Bitcoin blasted all the way to $94k late last night and the broader crypto sphere is now catching up. Far too early to call for alt season, but it is refreshing to see some optimism for once.

The week is off to a shaky start. Financial markets are somewhat jittery following Trump’s comments against Jerome Powell last Thursday and the lower liquidity this Easter Monday is not helping matters. The US president’s scathing attack has raised questions concerning the sovereignty of the Federal Reserve. Can the Fed Chair be replaced at will by the government? Will the Fed remain independent? Such questions will almost certainly be forgotten soon enough, but markets are currently gripped with paranoia. Either way, Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, so the president will get his wish one way or another.

Rough start to the week for Dollar bulls. The DXY shot down over 1% early this morning as investors sought refuge elsewhere. The Euro was the main beneficiary of the move, climbing to $1.15 and further still, but the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen also continued to appreciate against the Greenback.

As is tradition, gold set another record high earlier today, this time striking $3,385 an ounce. The precious metal’s accolades are becoming almost mundane at this point, with two dozen all-time highs already this year. For once, Bitcoin also captured some attention, gaining around 2.5% to draw closer to $88k. Cryptocurrencies have a long way to go before they start outperforming gold, which is up almost 30% since the start of the year. In contrast, Bitcoin is down 6% over the same time frame, with the broader crypto market faring even worse. Bitcoin dominance is now up to 64%, a share not seen since 2021.

For obvious reasons, there is nothing on the economic calendar today, nor even tomorrow. The remainder of the week is similarly devoid of content, with the sole exception of manufacturing PMI figures from various parts of the world on Wednesday. For those paying attention to the unfolding Fed drama, there will also be a number of speeches from several board members scattered throughout the week.

As predicted, Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday did indeed prove to be the only newsworthy event of the week. The Fed Chair stuck to the usual script, citing the uncertainty in economic forecasts as reason for caution and stating that there was no rush to lower interest rates. Nothing markets haven’t heard a hundred times before. While the speech itself revealed nothing new, the subsequent reaction from Donald Trump provided more than enough meat for the media to chew on. In a scathing social media post, the president launched an all-out attack against the Federal Reserve Chairman, accusing him of playing politics, being too slow in lowering interest rates and generally describing Powell’s stewardship as “terrible”. Trump later added that “Powell’s termination cannot come soon enough”. Judging by the reaction in interest rate prediction markets, it doesn’t look like the harsh comments will do anything to sway the Fed during its next meeting.

Market conditions were somewhat quieter on Thursday in the lead up to Good Friday, but that did not stop gold from hitting yet another record high, this time reaching $3,357 an ounce. Interestingly, the large shipments of gold from London to New York now appear to be reversing course. The threat of tariffs on precious metals prompted COMEX to dramatically increase its holdings following the US election, culminating in record-breaking flows of bullion leaving Europe. Such threats were eliminated a couple of weeks ago however when Washington excluded the metals from the reciprocal tariff plan. COMEX inventories are now about 45 metric tonnes lighter as a result.

With markets in the Western hemisphere closed until next Tuesday, there is very little of substance to move the needle either way. After several weeks of non-stop action, markets will be grateful for the respite.

Gold cannot go five minutes without setting a new record high. The precious metal wasted no time this morning in the Asian session, climbing straight to $3,283 an ounce before deliberating its next move. The flight to safety extended to the Swiss Franc, which is already up one cent versus the Dollar as of this morning.

The argument in favour of safe-haven flows is still a convincing one. The 90-day pause on the new tariffs was only ever designed to be temporary and the path forward remains unclear. In a new twist, Federal Register filings revealed on Monday that the US administration is intending to conduct an investigation into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. The investigation, launched by the Department of Commerce, seeks to establish how imports of computer chips, as well as the machinery to fabricate them, affect the national security of the United States. Markets were all too happy to hear that electronic products would be excluded from the sweeping reciprocal tariffs, but this latest development suggests that the above imports would fall under “sector specific” tariffs.

On Tuesday, a filing from Nvidia indicated that the company’s sales to China would be affected by the imposition of export licences, resulting in $5.5 billion in extra charges to the chipmaker. The uncertainty surrounding future trade arrangements, particularly in the technology sector, continues to weigh on stock markets around the world. Futures markets are low ahead of the US open later today and Asian stocks are once again on the back foot this morning.

The lack of clarity is certainly doing nothing to perk up oil markets, which continue to advertise some of the lowest crude prices seen in years. Every major bank appears to have adjusted their forecasts to the downside, both in terms of demand and price. Brent Crude is back up to $64 a barrel as of this morning while West Texas continues to tread water above $60.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech this evening, in what is likely to be the only newsworthy story of the day – at least in terms of scheduled events. The Dollar Currency Index is currently unwilling to reclaim the 100 level, despite the fact that interest rate traders are once again favouring a hold during the next meeting on the 7th of May.