July 30, 2025
Markets have had a few days to digest the EU-US trade deal reached on Sunday. The biggest mover so far has been the Euro, which faced lows of $1.15 yesterday after having fallen 1.5% so far this week. Weakness in the common currency was enough to briefly push the Dollar currency index back above 99 for the first time in over a month during yesterday’s session. Staying with the Dollar, traders only have a matter of hours to wait before the Fed comes to a decision on the next interest rate target and while the outcome is unlikely to be anything other than a rate hold, there are growing rumours of dissent among the ranks. A number of board members, including Waller and Bowman, are becoming increasingly vocal about the need to lower rates.
From today onwards, the economic calendar will shift up a gear. The aforementioned Fed decision is worth keeping an eye on, but traders are facing a packed schedule from here until Friday. The ADP employment change, while often at odds with NFP data, may upset markets later today. Thursday’s PCE Price Index is another big event, but pales in comparison to Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. A reminder that Microsoft (MSFT) and META report earnings later today, while Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) report tomorrow.
Geopolitical events are also beginning to resurface, as president Trump launched an ultimatum at Russia to end the war in Ukraine within the next 10-12 days. The declaration includes threats of hefty tariffs on US trading partners who continue to import Russian oil, leading to potential supply woes. Crude oil has climbed 6% since Monday, with Brent futures pushing $72.50 a barrel and WTI now over $69. Such sanctions will mostly affect the likes of India and China, further complicating ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
July 30, 2025
The GENIUS Act has been signed into US law after successfully passing through both Houses of Congress. The bill has been widely celebrated by the crypto community, not only because it is the first piece of cryptocurrency legislation to be enacted into US law, but also because it shows the willingness of the current administration to encourage future developments in the nascent industry. GENIUS stands for “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins” and stablecoins are indeed the focus of this piece of legislation. So what does the bill entail?
A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency that is pegged to the value of a fiat currency, such as the US Dollar. As with all cryptocurrencies, stablecoins rely on blockchain technology in order to be sent and received around the world. Unlike other cryptocurrencies however, stablecoins do not change in value. The most widely used stablecoin is Tether (USDT), which makes up around 70% of the total stablecoin market. Tether has been around since 2014, which makes it one of the oldest cryptocurrencies still in widespread use. Circle’s USDC is another common example.
In theory, one USDT is always equal to and redeemable for one USD, although during times of extremely high volatility and unusual market conditions, the gap between the two can widen for brief periods of time.
Stablecoins are useful for traders who need a break from the volatility commonly found in crypto markets. Just as traditional markets often trade between various assets and the USD, crypto markets will typically trade between various cryptocurrencies and a synthetic Dollar such as USDT. This allows traders to book profits without having to revert back to fiat after every trade. Increasingly, stablecoins are also being considered for payments and cross-border settlement.One of the main problems of stablecoins, particularly Tether, is that for the past ten years they have existed in a very murky legal grey area. The legal status of such financial instruments, as well as the bodies responsible for issuing them, have long cast a shadow over the crypto industry. “Tether FUD” has been a recurring feature over the years and developers and investors alike have never been sure about the precise legal standing, nor the trustworthiness, of stablecoins.
The point about legal uncertainty is by no means exclusive to stablecoins. The entire crypto industry has suffered a great deal in recent years because of the lack of clarity from financial agencies such as the SEC. Developers have been begging for guidance for a long time, only to receive contradictory advice and punitive measures in return. Ongoing developments, including but not limited to the GENIUS Act, are a genuine breath of fresh air in this regard. The first thing the GENIUS Act does is to give a proper definition of the term “payment stablecoin”, illustrating just how far behind the regulation side of crypto is.
The GENIUS Act makes it unlawful for anyone other than a permitted entity to issue stablecoins in the US. These permitted entities are grouped into three categories:
Put bluntly, no one can issue stablecoins without the express approval of the federal or state government. Any party found in violation of the above faces fines of $1,000,000 per violation and up to five years imprisonment.
Stablecoin issuers are required to maintain full reserve backing. This means that every synthetic Dollar issued has to be backed up by an equivalent real-world Dollar. Permitted reserves include:
Stablecoin issuers must publish monthly reports detailing the quantity of outstanding stablecoins and the amount and composition of the reserves backing them up. Furthermore, issuers are forbidden from engaging in rehypothecation, meaning they are not allowed to use assets if they are already being used by their clients as collateral.
The full reserve requirement is all the more interesting because regular bank deposits do not benefit from such protection. As of 2020, US banks are under no obligation whatsoever to hold any reserves to back up their customers’ deposits.
The GENIUS Act rules that if a stablecoin issuer goes bankrupt, the assets used to back up its stablecoins are not the property of the issuer’s creditors. The intention here is to isolate those funds from bankruptcy claims, reserving them instead to cover the losses of stablecoin holders. Moreover, if those reserves are not enough to redeem all outstanding stablecoins, the act gives holders absolute priority for compensation, even above administrative expenses.
Stablecoin issuers are subject to the same comprehensive regulatory oversight as traditional financial institutions. This means all the same rules covering anti-money laundering, sanctions, customer identification and due diligence also apply to stablecoin issuers. Such rules come hand-in-hand with relevant enforcement mechanisms, such as hefty fines and prison sentences.
Many of the above points fall under the umbrella of basic common sense, which is an interesting point in itself. The GENIUS Act is in fact the first piece of legislation to clarify the obvious point that stablecoins are neither securities nor commodities. Stablecoins have been around since 2014, crypto itself even longer. It has taken this long just to settle on basic definitions. The lesson here is that developers cannot wait for regulatory clarity before pushing forward. Build first, let the lawmakers catch up later. With that said, a well-defined legal framework provides fertile ground for future innovation and growth, allowing developers to build without constant fear of repercussion. The GENIUS Act has passed and the Clarity and Anti-CBDC Acts are next in line. Hopefully there will be many more to come.
July 29, 2025
After months of negotiations, the two blocs finally settled on an initial trade framework late on Sunday night. The salient point of the agreement is that EU goods will now face a blanket 15% tariff when exported to the US. As usual, both sides are claiming victory over the outcome, but the fact is that the 15% tariff is far higher than anything the EU has faced before. With that said, the figure is certainly more appealing than the 30% tariff that the EU would have faced had a deal not been established. As EU head Ursula von der Leyen herself admitted, the trade deal was “the best we could get”. The figure also matches the 15% tariff agreed upon as part of last week’s trade deal with Japan, setting a strong precedent for future trade agreements. Thursday marks the end of July, which means that countries around the world only have a few days left to lock in trade deals before the August tariff deadline comes into effect. So far, the UK, the EU, Japan and a number of South-East Asian countries have been able to secure their positions, but negotiations with some of America’s largest trading partners remain in limbo.
All three major US stock indices closed in the green last Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hitting new record highs. The S&P 500 enjoyed a particularly impressive five-day streak by establishing a new record high every single day of the week. Futures contracts are trading higher still in light of the new deal trade with the EU.
Where to begin? The August deadline on Friday may provide some unexpected drama as countries scramble to escape the incoming tariffs, but there are enough planned events to keep traders very busy this week. Tuesday offers the first glimpse into the US labour market in the form of the latest JOLT survey. Wednesday follows along in the same vein with the ADP employment change, while providing the latest GDP figures from the EU and the US. Two interest rate decisions are also scheduled for Wednesday, firstly from the Bank of Canada, then later on from the Federal Reserve. Neither is expected to enact a rate cut this time round, but the accompanying commentary may provide something for traders chew on. On Thursday morning, the Band of Japan is expected to hold rates steady on the Yen, while later in the day markets will have to come to terms with the latest PCE Price Index, which is forecast to show a slight uptick in US inflation. As if that were not enough, Non-Farm Payrolls hit the newswires on Friday, with 102k new jobs expected and a 4.2% unemployment rate. On top of the above, earnings season steps up a notch this week with Visa (V) reporting on Tuesday, Microsoft (MSFT) and META on Wednesday, then Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Mastercard (MA) on Thursday.
July 28, 2025
FOREX stands for Foreign Exchange. The FOREX market allows people to trade one currency for another. Different currencies are constantly changing in value relative to each other. A skilful trader can exploit this dynamic in order to make a profit.
Most currencies in the world are freely exchangeable, meaning there are little to no restrictions on buying, selling, or trading among them. As with any free market, there are forces at work that make some currencies more attractive over time, while making others less so. This leads to changes in their relative values. Many different variables can impact the value of a given currency, including but not limited to:
The goal of a trader is to predict which way a currency pair will move, and to then buy or sell accordingly. For example, a trader may look at the Euro and decide that it will increase in value compared to the Dollar. The trader will therefore buy Euros in exchange for Dollars, with the expectation that the newly acquired Euros will go up in value relative to the Dollar. The trader will then try to secure a profit by selling those Euros back into Dollars after the exchange rate has moved in their favour. If the trade goes well, the trader will end up with more Dollars than they started with.
The Foreign Exchange market is one of the most popular in the world, for good reason. FOREX trading has many advantages, such as:
Getting started in FOREX has never been easier. Open a demo or live account and get started today.
July 25, 2025
In a rare turn of events, gold, silver and copper are all simultaneously gunning for record highs. Gold came very close to achieving a new all-time high close yesterday, but ultimately had to settle for $3,431 per ounce. Silver meanwhile achieved yet another yearly high by reaching $39.25 last night. Last but not least, copper prices rose over 2% on Tuesday to come within touching distance of $5.70 per pound. Copper imports into the US are facing the looming threat of a 50% tariff, which has pushed prices up dramatically since being announced by president Trump earlier in the month. A number of vessels carrying copper are currently in a race to reach US ports before the new duties come into effect on the first of August. The rush to unload the precious cargo has forced shipping companies to employ some creative measures, such as shipping to Hawaii as opposed to the intended destination in the contiguous states, as well as paying a premium to skip queues upon arrival in port.
Tariffs in general are once again a driving force behind market sentiment. The announcement of a trade deal between the US and Japan pushed both nations’ stock markets higher yesterday. The Nikkei 225 gained 3.2% over the course of the day, tipping the index over 41,000 points. In the US meanwhile, the S&P 500 edged another all-time high close last night, already its second of the week. Earnings reports from Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) could stir things up later today , as expectations from investors are absolutely sky-high. Anything less than great news could potentially put pressure on tech stocks. General Motors (GM) tanked 8% yesterday after disappointing profit figures while Lockheed Martin (LM) crashed over 10% on similarly dismal quarterly results.
July 23, 2025
Crypto week may be over, but the legislation signed into US law last Friday has far-reaching consequences. The Genius Act allows different financial institutions to issue their own stablecoins and lays out the regulatory framework necessary to do so. Put simply, the act defines what is allowed and what is not, sweeping away the murky grey area that has traditionally surrounded stablecoins. The new legislation will now allow crypto companies to push forward with developments that in some cases had been put on hold for years. Crypto markets are in full swing and while Bitcoin has gone off the boil since reaching the $120k mark, the broader alt market has been more than happy to pick up the slack. Bitcoin dominance continued to plummet over the weekend, while cryptocurrencies up and down the rankings exhibited double-digit gains, in some cases hitting record highs of their own.
President Trump’s tariff deadline is approaching by the hour and delegations from across the globe are scrambling to hash out trade deals. If such agreements are not ironed out by the first of August, trading partners will be slapped with sweeping, broad-stroke tariffs reaching as high as 40% for some countries. The big question is of course the European Union, which is facing 30% duties on exports to the US unless a deal is hammered out over the next ten days. Negotiations with Japan became a lot more complicated yesterday after the ruling coalition lost control of the upper house. Japanese markets are closed today so the election result has not yet had a chance to impact the Nikkei 225 index.
Very little on the economic calendar over the coming week. Fed Chair Powell is set to speak tomorrow although his words are unlikely to greatly affect market sentiment. Rumours of Trump potentially firing Powell are once again doing the rounds but as usual there does not seem to be much substance to them. The biggest news from the Fed is that governor Christopher Waller is now openly calling for a rate cut at the end of the month, going so far as to say that current rates should be 3% instead of the current 4.5%. Manufacturing and services PMIs dominate Thursday’s proceedings, although the European Central Bank could surprise currency traders by adjusting rates on the Euro. Expectations are currently firmly in favour of a rate hold at 2%. A few heavy hitters on the earnings calendar this week: Coca-Cola (KO) on Tuesday; Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and IBM on Wednesday.
July 21, 2025
Эрсдлийн дохио : Худалдааны дериватив ба хөшүүрэг бүтээгдэхүүн нь өндөр түвшний эрсдэлтэй байдаг.
ДАНС НЭЭХ
