Financial Analyst/Content Writer, RADEX MARKETS
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
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Only two months left in 2025 and market participants are, understandably, struggling to get the lay of the land. The US government closure has dragged on for over a month, surpassing most expectations, and unless the deadlock finds a resolution within the next two days, the shutdown will become the longest in history. The October NFP report never materialised, and in all likelihood the November release, scheduled for Friday, will not be published on time either. The lack of government data is hardly the end of the world, particularly given the woefully inaccurate figures provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in recent times, but the absence of job numbers is starting to make the Fed jittery about lowering rates. A December rate cut had been somewhat priced in, but is now no longer a certainty, leaving markets on unsure footing.
Recent events have carried the US dollar to three-month highs against other major currencies. Against the Japanese yen, the difference has been even more stark, with USDJPY climbing to highs not seen since February. The DXY is still below 100, but not by much. A stronger dollar has steadied flows into gold, which is struggling to stay above $4,000 per ounce this morning. Precious metals are still coming to terms with the progress made on the trade war front, which has dealt a minor blow to the safe-haven narrative. Cryptocurrencies are having an even worse time today, with Bitcoin falling below $108k earlier in the session and the wider crypto sphere faring even worse. October started strongly for cryptocurrencies, but it is safe to say that “Uptober” failed miserably, with the combined crypto market capitalisation losing around $200 billion over the course of the month.
The economic calendar remains uncertain due to the US shutdown, but there is enough to keep traders occupied with or without government data. Manufacturing PMIs dominate Monday’s proceedings, with fresh data from Europe and the US later in the day. Tuesday brings us an interest rate decision on the Australian dollar, where the RBA is expected to maintain rates at 3.6%.
Wednesday gives way to services PMIs, but also the ADP employment change, which is currently the only pulse markets have on the US labour market. On Thursday, the Bank of England will convene to decide the fate of the Pound, which is widely expected to hold steady at 4%. Despite being the first Friday of the month, it is unlikely that markets will have much to get excited about, with most analysts not anticipating a timely NFP report.
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