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Platinum pushes higher new

  ●  Platinum approaches $2,000   ●  US inflation softens   ●  Rate hike for the Japanese yen Platinum eyes $2,000 The rally in platinum continued yesterday, pushing the metal to within touching distance of $2,000 per ounce and matching its 2008 price tag. Platinum has now doubled since the start of the year, an accolade also achieved by silver earlier in the month, but the precious metal may not be the last. The club has a couple of weeks left to welcome a third member into its ranks, this time in the form of palladium, which surpassed $1,750 yesterday and is up 90% so far this year. Gold came close to another record high on Thursday, but ultimately fell short, settling to a minor loss at $4,332 per ounce by the daily close. US inflation softens Markets received a surprising update yesterday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a significant slowdown in US inflation. Year-over-year inflation was expected to hit 3.1% in November, but the official figure came in at just 2.7%. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile components such as energy and food, lowered to 2.6%, falling far short of expectations of 3.0%. The unexpected figures buoyed US stock markets, lifting the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to positive daily closes. It is still too early to be thinking about the next move by the Federal Reserve, but should inflation continue to show signs of abating, it will open the door for future rate cuts on the dollar, which are currently not expected until March at the earliest. Rate hike for the Japanese yen The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate on the yen to a 30-year high of 0.75% this morning. The move was widely expected and provoked little to no reaction in currencies or in financial markets in general. The central bank is expected to continue raising rates into next year, a shift that will eventually impact the relative value of the yen, which now sits at decade-lows against most major currencies. Low rates have made the Japanese yen very attractive as a source of cheap financing in recent years, but such a model could quickly disappear if the BoJ keeps closing the gap between the yen and the dollar. #Platinum #Inflation #JPY

December 19, 2025

What is slippage and how to avoid it in trading new

Slippage is the difference between the price you expect a trade to be executed at and the price it actually fills at. In forex trading, slippage happens because prices move constantly and liquidity can change in milliseconds, especially during volatile market conditions. Slippage can be positive or negative, meaning it may either improve your execution price or make it worse than planned. It occurs across all financial markets, forex, indices, stocks, and crypto, and is a completely normal part of how markets function. This matters because even small execution differences can quietly eat into profits or increase losses over time, particularly for active traders or those trading around news events. What Is Slippage in Trading? The term “slippage” refers to the change in execution price between the moment an order is placed and when it is filled by the market. In simple terms, you ask for one price, but the market gives you another. In forex trading, slippage occurs because currency prices are constantly updating as buy and sell orders are matched. If the price you requested is no longer available, even by a fraction of a second, your trade will be filled at the next best available price. Slippage is most noticeable during periods of high volatility or low liquidity, but it can happen at any time. For this reason, slippage is not a broker trick or a system failure, it is a natural consequence of how live markets operate. Key characteristics of slippage: It affects both entries and exits It can be positive, negative, or neutral It occurs more often during fast markets It cannot be fully eliminated, only managed As a result, understanding slippage is essential for realistic trade planning and risk management. Types of Slippage In forex trading, slippage generally falls into three categories: positive slippage, negative slippage, and no slippage. A small amount of slippage is a natural market phenomenon because bid and ask prices are constantly changing as orders flow through the market. In simple terms, slippage occurs when the price available at the time of execution is different from the price you requested. Whether this difference works for or against you depends entirely on market conditions at that moment. This matters because traders often focus only on negative slippage, when in reality slippage can sometimes improve execution as well. Positive Slippage Positive slippage occurs when a trade is executed at a better price than expected. In forex trading, this typically happens when price moves in the trader’s anticipated direction between order placement and execution. For example, you place a buy order on EUR/USD at 1.1000, but due to a quick dip in price, the order fills at 1.0997 instead. You enter the trade at a better price without doing anything differently. Positive slippage usually occurs during fast markets where liquidity briefly improves or when price momentum works in your favour. For this reason, slippage isn’t always something traders should fear. Negative Slippage Negative slippage happens when a trade is filled at a worse price than expected. This is most common during periods of high volatility, thin liquidity, or sudden market moves against your position. For instance, you place a stop-loss at 1.1000, expecting to exit there, but a sharp price move causes the order to fill at 1.0990 instead. The trade loses more than planned, even though the stop was placed correctly. Negative slippage matters because it increases risk beyond what was calculated when the trade was entered. No Slippage No slippage refers to situations where the execution price exactly matches the requested price. While this is the ideal outcome, it is less common during active market conditions. No slippage is most likely to occur during high-liquidity sessions, calm market environments, or when using limit orders instead of market orders. Think of it as getting exactly what you ordered, possible, but not guaranteed in a fast-moving market. Order-Based Slippage Different types of orders experience slippage in different ways. The way an order is executed, not just market conditions, plays a major role in how much slippage a trader experiences. Market Order Slippage Market orders are filled at the best available price, not a guaranteed price. If the market moves quickly, the execution price may differ from what the trader expected. Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Slippage Stop-loss and take-profit orders are triggered as market orders. During volatile conditions, they may be filled several pips away from their trigger level. Limit Order Slippage Limit orders avoid slippage by specifying a price, but the trade may not be filled at all if the market never reaches that level. Weekend Slippage Weekend slippage occurs when markets reopen after a price gap caused by news or events while the market was closed. Orders are filled at the first available price, not the previous close. As a result, traders should choose order types based on both strategy and execution risk. Expected vs Unexpected Slippage Slippage can be divided into two broad categories: expected slippage and unexpected slippage. The key difference is whether the trader could reasonably anticipate the risk before placing the trade. Expected slippage occurs during known high-risk periods, such as major economic data releases or low-liquidity trading hours. Unexpected slippage, on the other hand, happens when the market moves suddenly without warning. Read more:Best time to trade forex: When to enter the market during the day This matters because traders can plan for expected slippage, but unexpected slippage is where most “what just happened?” moments come from. Expected Slippage Expected slippage refers to execution price differences that occur during predictable market conditions. In simple terms, you know the risk is there before you click the button. Examples include trading during major news releases, entering trades during thin Asian-session liquidity, or placing market orders during fast-moving markets. In these situations, some loss of price precision is normal and should be factored into the trade plan. For this reason, expected slippage is a cost of doing business rather than a trading mistake. Unexpected Slippage Unexpected slippage occurs when price moves sharply without prior warning. This type of slippage is usually larger and far more damaging to risk calculations. It often happens due to surprise headlines, geopolitical events, sudden market gaps, or technical issues at the exchange or liquidity-provider level. Traders are caught off guard, and stops may fill far away from their intended level. This is why unexpected slippage represents a higher execution risk and can lead to losses well beyond what was originally planned. Common Causes of Unexpected Slippage Major economic data surprises Geopolitical events or emergency announcements Weekend or session-open gaps Low-liquidity market conditions Technical or exchange-level disruptions Read more: forex News Expected vs Unexpected Slippage Comparison Category Expected Slippage Unexpected Slippage Definition Anticipated execution deviation Sudden, unforeseen execution gap Typical Size Small to moderate Moderate to severe Cause News, volatility, thin liquidity Shocks, gaps, system issues Market Conditions Known high-risk periods Abnormal or sudden moves Order Types Affected Market & stop orders All order types Risk Level Manageable High When It Happens Scheduled events Without warning Impact on Traders Reduced precision Increased losses As a result, professional traders treat expected and unexpected slippage very differently in their risk management. How Does Slippage Work? Slippage works because markets do not guarantee prices, they match orders. When you place a trade, your order is sent to the market to be filled at the best available price at that moment. If your requested price no longer exists due to rapid price movement or insufficient liquidity, the order is filled at the next available level. The faster the market moves, the greater the chance that your intended price disappears before execution. To put it simply, slippage is not about getting a “bad fill”, it’s about the reality of trading in a live, constantly moving market. What Causes Slippage? Slippage is caused by a mismatch between the price a trader requests and the prices actually available in the market at that moment. This usually happens when price moves faster than orders can be filled, or when there isn’t enough liquidity at the desired level. In simple terms, if nobody is willing to trade at your price, the market moves on without you. The order still gets filled, just not where you hoped. Understanding the root causes of slippage helps traders anticipate when execution risk is highest. High Volatility High volatility is one of the most common causes of slippage. During volatile conditions, prices can jump multiple levels in a fraction of a second, leaving no time for orders to fill at the requested price. This typically occurs around major economic news releases, central bank announcements, or surprise headlines. Even a well-placed stop-loss can suffer slippage if price accelerates too quickly. This matters because volatility-driven slippage is unavoidable once price starts moving aggressively. Low Liquidity Low liquidity means fewer buyers and sellers are available at each price level. When liquidity is thin, even small trades can push price to the next level, resulting in slippage. This is most common during off-peak trading hours, holidays, or late-session periods. Importantly, price does not need to move far for slippage to occur, it simply needs to move where no orders exist. For this reason, traders often experience slippage even in relatively quiet markets. Market Gaps Market gaps occur when price jumps from one level to another without trading in between. When this happens, stop-loss orders are triggered as market orders and filled at the first available price. This can result in significant slippage, especially after weekends or unexpected news events. Crucially, this type of slippage is completely unavoidable, there is no price to fill at in between. This is why holding trades over the weekend always carries additional execution risk. Order Type Different order types expose traders to different slippage risks. Market orders accept any available price, making them the most vulnerable to slippage. Stop orders convert into market orders once triggered, which is why stop-loss slippage is so common during fast markets. Limit orders avoid slippage entirely, but at the cost of potentially missing the trade. As a result, order selection plays a major role in execution quality. Spread Widening Spread widening occurs when the gap between the bid and ask prices increases sharply. This often happens during periods of high volatility or low liquidity. When spreads widen, execution prices can shift dramatically, even if the underlying price hasn’t moved much. Traders may experience slippage simply because the tradable prices have changed. This is why slippage and spread widening often go hand in hand. Read more:What Is the Spread in Forex? Learn to Calculate and Trade It Examples of Slippage in Trading The most common way slippage occurs is when a trader uses a market or stop order during fast-moving market conditions. In these situations, the price the trader sees on the chart may no longer be available by the time the order reaches the market. In practice, slippage is more often unfavourable than favourable, particularly when exiting trades under pressure. However, positive slippage does occur and is simply less talked about. Slippage During a News Release A trader places a stop-loss on EUR/USD ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. The stop is set at 1.1000, and the trader expects to exit there if the trade goes wrong. When the data is released, price spikes sharply and gaps through multiple levels. The stop-loss is triggered but fills at 1.0985 instead. The trader loses more than planned, even though the stop was placed correctly. This is a classic example of volatility-driven negative slippage. Positive Slippage on Entry A trader places a market buy order on GBP/USD at 1.2500 during an active London session. As the order is being executed, price briefly dips due to a large sell order entering the market. The trade fills at 1.2497 instead of 1.2500. The trader starts the position with a slightly better entry, gaining positive slippage without intending to. This example shows that slippage isn’t always harmful, it’s simply part of live market execution. Weekend Slippage A trader holds a position over the weekend with a stop-loss set at 1.2000. Over the weekend, unexpected geopolitical news breaks. When the market opens on Sunday night, price gaps down and the stop-loss fills at 1.1950. The loss is significantly larger than planned, despite proper risk management during the week. This illustrates why weekend slippage is one of the most dangerous forms of execution risk. As a result, slippage should always be treated as a probability, not an exception, especially during high-risk market conditions. When Does Slippage Occur? Slippage tends to occur during specific market conditions rather than randomly. While it can happen at any time, certain periods consistently produce higher execution risk. Understanding when slippage is most likely allows traders to adjust position size, order type, or avoid trading altogether. High-Impact News Releases Slippage is extremely common during major economic announcements, particularly when results differ from market expectations. Common slippage-heavy events include: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) CPI inflation reports GDP releases FOMC statements and interest rate decisions Central bank press conferences These events cause sudden volatility, spread widening, and rapid price jumps. Market Open or Close At market open and close, liquidity can be uneven and spreads unstable. Orders placed during these times may be filled at unexpected prices, especially if markets open with a gap. Low-Liquidity Trading Sessions Slippage is more likely during quiet trading sessions, such as late U.S. hours or holiday periods. Fewer participants mean fewer prices available to trade at. Order-Based Slippage Certain order types are naturally more vulnerable: Market orders: No price protection Stop orders: Convert to market orders when triggered Take-profit orders: Can slip during sharp reversals Stop-loss orders: Particularly vulnerable during gaps This is why execution risk should always be considered when choosing how to enter or exit a trade. How to Avoid Slippage While slippage can never be eliminated entirely, traders can take several steps to reduce how often it occurs and how severe it becomes. The goal isn’t perfect execution, it’s damage control. In simple terms, slippage is about when you trade, what you trade, and how you place orders. Get those three right, and slippage becomes an occasional inconvenience rather than a regular account killer. Avoid Trading During High Volatility High-impact economic news is one of the biggest causes of slippage. During these moments, spreads widen, liquidity thins, and prices jump multiple levels in seconds. Events such as NFP, CPI, GDP releases, and central bank decisions are prime examples. Traders who insist on trading during these periods must accept a higher execution risk. For this reason, using an economic calendar and staying out of the market during major announcements is one of the simplest ways to reduce slippage. Choose High-Liquidity Markets High-liquidity markets generally offer better execution and tighter spreads. Major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY tend to have more participants and deeper order books. Trading during active sessions, particularly the London and New York overlap, also improves execution quality. This matters because liquidity, not volatility, is the trader’s best friend when it comes to slippage. Use Limit Orders Instead of Market Orders Limit orders allow traders to specify the exact price they are willing to trade at. This removes slippage entirely, but it introduces a new risk: the trade may not be filled. Market orders guarantee execution but not price, while limit orders guarantee price but not execution. Choosing between them depends on whether execution certainty or price precision matters more for the strategy. For this reason, disciplined traders often use limit orders for entries and market orders only when speed is essential. Manage Position Size to Reduce Slippage Larger orders are harder to fill cleanly, especially in thin markets. Big positions may be filled across multiple price levels, increasing slippage. Reducing position size improves execution and keeps price impact to a minimum. This is particularly important for retail traders operating outside peak liquidity hours. Consider Guaranteed Stop-Loss Orders Guaranteed stop-loss orders ensure that a stop is filled at the exact price specified. These are most useful during extreme volatility or when holding trades over high-risk periods. The trade-off is cost, guaranteed stops usually come with wider spreads or additional fees. However, for traders who value certainty over cost, they can be a valuable risk-management tool. Avoid Holding Trades Over the Weekend Weekend gaps are a major source of unexpected slippage. News events can occur while markets are closed, causing price to reopen far from Friday’s close. Closing trades before the weekend removes this risk entirely. This is why many experienced traders prefer to start each week flat and risk-free. How to Trade During Slippage Sometimes slippage is unavoidable. When that happens, the goal shifts from avoiding it to trading around it intelligently. Place Limit Orders Instead Limit orders prevent slippage by refusing to fill at worse prices. While this may mean missing some trades, it protects execution quality over the long term. Use Stop-Limit Orders Instead of Stop Orders Stop-limit orders add a price cap to stop execution. This prevents extreme slippage but introduces the risk of not being filled during fast markets. They are best used in moderately volatile conditions rather than extreme news events. Trade Only Major Currency Pairs Major pairs typically have tighter spreads, deeper liquidity, and better execution. Exotic and minor pairs are far more prone to slippage, especially during off-hours. Scale Into Positions Scaling into trades reduces execution pressure. Instead of entering a full position at once, traders build positions gradually across multiple price levels. This approach reduces slippage and smooths out average entry price, particularly in volatile markets. Read more:15 Best Trading Strategies Recommended by Top Traders FAQ What is slippage in forex? Slippage in forex is the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which it is actually executed. It can be positive or negative and usually occurs during volatile or low-liquidity market conditions. Is slippage good or bad? Slippage can be both good and bad. Positive slippage means a trade is executed at a better price than expected, while negative slippage results in a worse execution price and higher trading costs. How much slippage is normal in trading? Normal slippage depends on the market, liquidity, and volatility. In highly liquid forex pairs during active sessions, slippage is often minimal, but it can increase significantly during news releases, gaps, or thin markets. Conclusion: Understanding Slippage as a Trader Slippage is not a flaw in trading; it’s a reality of live markets. Prices move, liquidity changes, and orders are matched in real time, not at guaranteed levels. Once traders accept this, slippage becomes something to manage rather than fear. The key reason slippage causes problems is not because it exists, but because it’s often ignored when trades are planned. By choosing the right order types, trading during liquid sessions, managing position size, and avoiding high-risk periods, traders can dramatically reduce its impact. In simple terms, slippage rewards preparation and punishes complacency. Understand it, plan for it, and it stops being a nasty surprise and becomes just another part of professional trading. Try These Next What is margin trading and how it works in forex? What is leverage and how it works in forex trading? What Is the Spread in forex? Learn to Calculate and Trade It { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@graph": [ { "@type": "Article", "@id": "https://www.radexmarkets.com/en/News/NewsDetail?p=bGRlNjJjU0dLbW89", "headline": "What is slippage and how to avoid it in trading", "description": "What is slippage in trading? 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December 19, 2025

Crude oil hits four-year low new

  ●  Crude slides on oversupply fears   ●  Silver touches $66   ●  Platinum challenges $1,900 Precious metals shine Silver is rallying once again this morning, touching $66 per ounce early in the Asian session. The white metal is not alone. Platinum has pushed aggressively higher over the past four sessions and judging by this morning’s performance, today will likely be the fifth. Platinum is currently challenging $1,900 at the time of writing and if it rises much higher will match prices not seen since 2008. The metal still has a long way to go before notching a new record high, which stands near $2,300 per ounce, but given the surge in silver so far this year, traders will understandably be entertaining such a possibility. Palladium is also looking at its fifth consecutive day in the green, and is now reaching over $1,650 per ounce. Despite a minor loss yesterday, gold still managed to close above $4,300 per ounce, and remains comfortable above that threshold as of this morning, but attentions are focused elsewhere for the time being. Crude oil sinks lower Crude oil prices fell to fresh multi-year lows on Tuesday. Futures for the Brent Crude benchmark were briefly pushed below $59 per barrel yesterday, while West Texas Intermediate futures were trading under $55 at one point. Such prices have not been seen since 2021 and reflect a global supply glut that has been building for much of the year. Since April, OPEC+ has continued to ramp up production, rapidly unwinding years of output cuts that had previously buoyed crude oil prices. The simple fact of the matter is that supply is outpacing consumption and this dynamic is unlikely to change in the near future. No one wants to reduce production, because no one wants to cede market share to their competitors. As peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue to see progress, the probability of Russian oil re-entering the market increases – something that OPEC is painfully aware of. Should the sanctions against Russia be lifted in earnest, the additional player in worldwide oil markets could force prices down even further as different parties attempt to wrestle market share from one another. #Oil #Silver #Platinum

December 17, 2025

Stock splits and behavioural finance new

A stock split is exactly what it sounds like. A company splits its stock by increasing the number of outstanding shares, while decreasing the price of each one. A share may be divided into two, three, ten or more, with the cost of acquiring one share adjusting accordingly. The total market capitalisation of the company remains unchanged. Companies tend to perform stock splits when their share prices are high. Nvidia (NVDA) completed a 10-to-1 split in June 2024, at which time the company was trading at $1,200 per share. Following the split, each share was divided into ten shares, each worth $120. Nothing fundamental about the stock changed, merely a change of numbers. Companies can go through multiple rounds of stock splits. In fact, since going public in 1999, Nvidia has completed six separate stock splits, dividing one share at launch into a total of 480 shares today. The chipmaker is by no means an outlier; Home Depot and McDonald’s have undergone 13 and 12 stock splits respectively in their time. Stock splits have been around for a long time. The first examples, according to modern definitions of such, date back to 1916. American Can and American Tobacco both performed a stock split that year, following the same reasoning still used to this day: to make their shares more accessible to the average investor. Over a century later, the trend is still going strong, and by and large follows the same logic. Why do companies perform stock splits? The argument is that acquiring a share is more difficult for an average investor if the price tag is too high. Many stocks had a large barrier to entry because of this, which excluded a number of buyers. Even among those who could afford to buy higher-priced stocks, the perception that the company represents some kind of luxury good can deter some investors. By bringing their price down to more reasonable levels, the shares become more available, thereby expanding the potential pool of buyers. Moreover, a greater number of lower-priced shares results in greater liquidity, which may narrow the bid-ask spread, making life easier for buyers and sellers alike. Things changed considerably in late 2019, when Robinhood introduced fractional trading to its customers, allowing people to buy fractions of a share in a given company. Other competing platforms quickly implemented similar solutions, and over the past five years fractional trading has become widely available. As a result, the process of splitting a stock now makes a lot less sense than it once did. This begs the question of why Nvidia bothered to do one last year. If investors are free to buy only a fraction of a share, what is the point of a stock split? The answer is in fact mostly psychological. On a basic level, if a company is undergoing a stock split, or even thinking about one, it is because their share price has appreciated significantly in recent times, which is an obvious selling point for the stock itself, one that may potentially attract new investors. Such a factor certainly plays a role, but there is also a much deeper element at play: the notion of perceived affordability. Reverse stock splits As an aside, stock splits can also go the other way, consolidating a large number of shares into fewer, reducing the amount of shares outstanding. Such events are known as reverse stock splits, and typically occur when a company is in trouble. While a regular stock split is good publicity, a reverse stock split is generally a red flag. If a stock continuously underperforms, its share price may fall below the minimum price requirement of the exchange, meaning the stock will get delisted if stays too low for too long. For example, the New York Stock Exchange maintains a strict $1 price threshold, below which the associated company will eventually receive a deficiency notice. One of the most famous examples of a reverse stock split is the shipping company DryShips Inc (DRYS), which completed no fewer than eight such operations between 2016 and 2017. The company performed split after split in an attempt to counter the stock’s shockingly bad performance, desperately trying to remain listed on the stock exchange. The successive consolidations made for a combined reverse stock split of 1-to-11,760,000 shares. At one point, the company was facing ten separate class-action investor lawsuits, with accusations ranging from stock manipulation to violating American securities laws. Investment psychology For reasons that have nothing to do with logic, investors are more comfortable investing in assets when they lie within a specific price range. A high price tag can scare people away because they think that it is a sign that something is overvalued. The assumption is that an asset worth $1,000 must be overvalued compared to one that is only worth $3, and therefore the latter is a better investment. Such an argument is obviously nonsensical because it ignores the market cap of the company. Sticking with chip manufacturers, let us compare Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Nvidia has a share price of $177; AMD has a share price of $217. Is AMD “worth” more than Nvidia? Of course not, because Nvidia has over 24 billion shares outstanding, granting the company a market cap of $4 trillion, whereas AMD has just 1.6 billion shares outstanding, granting the company a market cap of $350 billion. Most people in investment circles are obviously aware of how market cap works and why investing in assets based on price alone is silly. But a small part of our brain sees the high price tag and gets skittish. Multiply that niggling feeling by the millions of people who subconsciously experience it, and suddenly there is a very real, tangible effect. The same phenomenon is arguably more pronounced in cryptocurrencies, which, to put it mildly, has its fair share of inexperienced market participants. People flock to “lower priced” coins for no other reason than the price tag, blissfully unaware of the concept of market capitalisation. To each their own. The point is, companies are wise to this effect. Companies will initiate stock splits in order to bring their share price right down to the sweet spot, whether they publicly admit it or not. Many cryptocurrencies are guilty of the same. There are costs associated with performing a stock split, including legal fees and administrative work, so the fact that companies will pursue such ventures, despite the cost of doing so, points to the lucrative nature of these operations. A stock split attracts a lot of attention. A share price going up so much that the company has to undergo a split? What is not to like? The hype surrounding such an event does indeed typically result in a surge of interest, and a rise in price. Such effects are meticulously monitored and studied, with many believing the $30 to $300 range being ideal in terms of optics for potential buyers. $1,000 price tags put people off just as much as sub-$1 prices. Interestingly, the acceptable range appears to vary by region, with different parts of the world preferring different price bands. If investors acted purely on logic, the price of a stock or crypto would not matter at all – market cap would be all that mattered. Unfortunately, we are not as clever as we think. Perception matters more than we would like to admit. With that said, some stocks are completely immune to such notions, such as Berkshire Hathaway, whose class A shares have never undergone a single stock split since their initial listing in 1988. BRK.A hit a share price of over $800,000 earlier in the year. That is not a decimal point. Eight hundred thousand dollars per share. The argument that markets are irrational is one that needs little justification; it is obvious for all to see. Stock markets, and financial markets in general, are a collection of human emotions. As the saying goes: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” The quote is attributed to John Maynard Keynes, renowned economist, who despite his expertise, lost significant amounts of money in the 1920s. Keynes would eventually learn his lesson, pivoting his bets towards much longer time frame plays. He would go on to run the endowment for King’s College, Cambridge, consistently beating the market, year after year, for over two decades. Reality usually catches up; it just takes a while.

December 16, 2025

Busy week ahead new

  ●  Double NFP drop on Tuesday   ●  Probable rate hike on the Yen   ●  Markets shy away from AI Investors flee from AI US stocks took a turn for the worse last Friday, as an increasing number of investors shied away from big tech companies. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index shed 1.7%, while the S&P 500 lost 1.1% and the Dow Jones closed 0.5% in the red – the further removed from tech stocks, the lesser the damage. Many companies associated with the artificial intelligence space suffered on Friday, including Oracle (ORCL), which fell another 4.5% after incurring a double-digit loss the day prior. Fellow chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) lost 3.3% and 4.8% respectively, while Broadcom (AVGO) plummeted over 11% following its latest earnings report, which failed to meet investors’ sky-high expectations regarding the company’s sales outlook. Despite the heavy selloff, the poor performance in technology stocks appears somewhat contained, with broader markets remaining relatively unaffected. There is a growing sentiment that AI valuations are overblown, and this has manifested in a pivot towards other sectors, as evidenced by the fact that the Dow gained over 1% last week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed in the red. Precious metals remain in bid Gold continued to push higher last Friday, reaching highs over $4,350 before settling a hair’s breadth below $4,300. The precious metal started the week strongly this morning, rising back towards $4,340 in the early Asian session. Silver traders finally took some profit last week, lowering the white metal to a $61.91 weekly close, but the bid has once again returned as of this morning. The spotlight may turn elsewhere this week, this time to platinum, which is currently challenging $1,800 – a price not seen since 2011. The week ahead Traders have a lot to keep an eye on this week. Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish a special NFP report, which will include nonfarm payroll figures for both October and November, granting the publication additional weight. However, the report will only feature unemployment stats for November, because the household survey data was not collected in October due to the government shutdown. Tuesday and Wednesday will then provide back-to-back retail sales for October and November, while Thursday will see the publication of the latest CPI figures. The backlog is rapidly being cleared. Moving away from the United States, this week will also see three major central bank decisions. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to enact a rate cut of its own, lowering the interest rate on the Pound to 3.75% from 4% currently. Later in the day, the European Central Bank will in all likelihood hold rates on the Euro steady at 2.15%. Finally, the most anticipated decision of the week lies with the Bank of Japan, which, in the early hours of Friday morning, will probably increase rates on the Yen to 0.75% from 0.5% at present. The shift to higher rates could be acutely far-reaching because low borrowing costs on the Japanese Yen have long been a source of cheap credit to markets around the world. The unwinding of such could have a detrimental impact on a number of markets, particularly those susceptible to low liquidity conditions, such as cryptocurrencies. To put the adjustment in context, rates on the Yen have not been as high as 0.75% since 1995. Despite the looming threat, the Yen does not appear to be making any strong moves, while Japanese bond yields have increased steadily for many months already, suggesting the rebalancing is somewhat priced in. Time will tell. #Gold #Silver #AVGO #NFP

December 15, 2025

Markets rise as one

  ●  US stocks rally after Fed decision   ●  Silver reaches $64   ●  Fed announces T-bill purchases Markets rise following rate cut Markets received an early Christmas present on Wednesday after the Fed delivered a highly-anticipated rate cut on the dollar. While expected, the decision nevertheless prompted a sigh of relief throughout financial circles, which swiftly turned into a flurry of buying activity. US stocks reacted positively, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 climbing to record highs yesterday, but for once, the technology sector missed out on the euphoria. Oracle (ORCL) published a worrying quarterly earnings report late on Wednesday, which led to an 11% loss on the stock the following day. The company fell short of revenue estimates projected by analysts, but the bigger problem in the eyes of many is the fact that Oracle reported capital expenditures of $12 billion in Q2. The figure is much higher than expected and has reawakened concerns regarding an over-inflated AI sector. The fall in Oracle also dragged down other AI-focused stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA), which lost 1.6% yesterday. Far from causing widespread fear across the stock market, the shift away from tech has resulted in a rotation towards other sectors, hence the outperformance of the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indices over the past two days. The Fed’s decision was also well received in precious metals, pushing gold to $4,279 per ounce on Thursday, while silver briefly reached above $64 during yesterday’s session. For those keeping track, silver is now up a staggering 120% since the start of the year, dwarfing decades of prior price action. In stark contrast, there has been absolutely zero reaction in cryptocurrencies thus far. Fed launches T-bill purchases Alongside the interest rate adjustment, the Fed also committed to regular purchases of short-term treasury bills, to the sum of $40 billion per month, set to begin today. According to Jerome Powell, the buying is “solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time, thus supporting effective control of our policy rate”, meaning the move is mostly technical in nature, ensuring the Fed has enough on its balance sheet to properly control market liquidity. Although the planned purchases are not officially part of the Fed’s monetary policy, for many people, they will be perceived as such. With quantitative tightening officially over, market participants have been on the lookout for signs of asset buying; it looks like they got their wish. #Silver #Tbill #Stock

December 12, 2025

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