September has arrived. Only a few weeks of summer remain and the fourth quarter is fast approaching. The next Fed decision, scheduled for the 17th, is now widely expected to deliver a rate cut and certain assets are beginning to reprice accordingly. Gold rose by $30 last Friday to $3,447 per ounce following the publication of the latest PCE price index and continued to push higher this morning, reaching $3,486 earlier in the day. Impressive, but nothing compared to the price action currently unfolding in the silver markets. After trying and failing to breach $40 an ounce last Friday, silver shot straight to $40.50 after markets opened this morning in Asia and is now re-entering territory not explored since 2011.
The release of the July PCE price report also prompted a selloff in US stocks last Friday, pushing the major indices to modest losses. The report fell in line with predictions and showed that headline inflation remained at 2.6% in July, while core inflation nudged higher to 2.9% from 2.8% in June. For all the commotion in stocks and precious metals, the Dollar has stayed relatively unfazed, keeping the DXY around 98.
North American markets are closed today due to Labour Day, but the economic calendar has more than enough to offer this week to make up for it. Manufacturing PMIs dominate proceedings for the next couple of days before Services PMIs take over later in the week. Besides inflation, the Fed also has unemployment to worry about and this week will present a comprehensive picture of the US labour market. The JOLT survey is set to be released late on Wednesday, followed by the ADP employment change on Thursday. The big event of the week however will be NFPs on Friday. Last month’s report caused quite the stir, revealing poor jobs figures in July but more worryingly, publishing heavy revisions for previous months. Predictions for August are much more tepid, with only 78k new jobs expected and unemployment levels rising to 4.3%. Until then, all eyes on precious metals.
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