Encouraging signs on the inflation front last Friday: the PCE price index revealed an increase of just 2.2% year-on-year, beating expectations and coming within touching distance of the Fed’s long-held target of 2%. The Dow Jones reacted by establishing yet another all-time high, rising 400 points before settling for a more modest 0.3% gain on the day. Interestingly, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed the day in the red.
An interesting start to the week in the Asian session. Japanese markets are currently reacting to the nomination of a new prime minister, set to take up the mantle tomorrow. Shigeru Ishiba is a former defence minister and is considered to be less investor friendly than his rivals, leaning towards raising rates and strengthening the Yen. The Nikkei 225 index fell over 4% by lunch as investors weigh the consequences of a stronger currency on the Japanese export market.
In China, stocks continued their recent rally this morning, buoyed by the generous stimulus package promised by the PBoC. Starting tomorrow, Chinese markets will remain closed for the upcoming “golden week”, potentially extracting liquidity out of the precious metals markets.
Manufacturing and services PMIs dominate the economic calendar this week, with China already publishing its figures this morning and the rest of the world to follow suit over the next few days. Later today, we may receive more clues as to the Fed’s intentions to enact further rate cuts thanks to a speech from Jerome Powell. Today also marks the end of the third quarter. Finally, Thursday and Friday have the potential to shake things up a bit with the publication of US jobless claims and Non-Farm Payrolls.
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