Update: 9am UTC
At the time of writing, Donald Trump has won 267 of the 270 electoral votes required to secure his second term in the White House. The former president has already claimed victory and although the race has yet to be officially called, it is looking increasingly likely that the US electorate has made its decision. Trump is also ahead in a few keys states that remain to be tallied.
The Dollar is now up an eye-watering 1.5% on the day. The DXY flew past 105 earlier today and is now hovering just above that critical level. European markets are beginning to wake up and they are reacting very positively to the expected result; the FTSE 100 shot out of the gate as soon as the opening bell chimed. Gold dipped somewhat over the last few hours but appears to be regaining ground.
Bitcoin, volatile as ever, is retracting a little from the $75k record high it established earlier in the day but crypto as a whole is up massively. The original meme coin, Doge, blasted all the way to 22c this morning before making a slight pull back. For those not in the know, Doge is now associated with Elon Musk’s fabled “Department Of Government Efficiency”: a clear nod to a Trump victory.
A few hours to go before US markets open. Plenty of drama still to come.
Update: 3am UTC
Good morning. It is still far too early to be calling for a winner in the presidential race as results begin to trickle in from around the United States. No real surprises so far, deeply red states voting red, deeply blue states voting blue. Battleground states still very much up for grabs with the possible exception of Georgia, which is indicating a narrow lead for Donald Trump.
Currency markets are reacting very interestingly. On election day, the Dollar Currency Index fell 0.4% and looked like it more room to drop, however this morning in the Asian session the momentum has completely flipped. As of the time of writing, the Dollar is up a whopping 1% versus the usual basket. Strength in the Greenback at this stage of the election generally fits into the “Trump trade” narrative.
In the precious metals markets, gold has been remarkably stable so far; content to remain around $2,740 for now. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 2% this morning, although weakness in the Yen could be the main culprit behind the move. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened low and appears directionless for the time being.
In crypto meanwhile, Bitcoin has just hit a new all-time high, topping $75k on some exchanges. Clues are starting to emerge here and there but traders have a long day ahead. Stay tuned.
The time has come. Today, the people of the United States will elect their 47th president. Join us on our rolling election coverage as we digest incoming developments and market movements.
Traders will have already noticed the volatility ramping up across various markets. In all likelihood, this is only going to get worse over the course of the day and potentially throughout the rest of the week. If the last election is anything to go by, the actual winner will not be decided any time soon. The drama may last a while. With that in mind, here are some election-specific survival tips:
Although 77 million Americans have already cast their vote, the bulk of the electorate have yet to do so. Voting starts early on Tuesday and booths will remain open until around 9pm local time at the latest. Results will start coming in a few hours after that, which means it will be a long night for those paying attention in Europe and the Americas. Once again, the final result may take a while to be announced. The tighter the race, the longer it will take.
The US election is special in that it focuses on a small number of battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. Claims of unfairness are irrelevant - these states matter more than others and any news from them will have a bigger market impact.
The markets most prone to volatility are those tied to the US economy. In currencies, any USD pair becomes riskier. Gold, given its status as a safe-haven asset, may also see significant movement as market participants readjust to a different future. US indices are another obvious target for volatile swings; traders should be particularly cautious about possibly large opening gaps when US exchanges kick off tomorrow. Oil markets, already in the midst of international uncertainty, could also see some added friction.
Finally, traders would do well to keep an eye on cryptocurrencies this week. While other markets may be more subtle in their reaction to various candidates, with crypto this is not so. The Trump team is widely accepted as being the more pro-crypto of the two candidates, and indeed more than the incumbent Biden administration.
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