Markets have shifted back towards a risk-on environment over the last few days. The panic surrounding tariffs continues to abate and US stocks have enjoyed decent rallies as a result. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have now closed higher over the past eight consecutive sessions, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied strongly yesterday following better-than-expected earnings reports from major tech companies. Microsoft (MSFT) surged a whopping 7.6% on Thursday after smashing earnings estimates. Both Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META) also had good news to report on their ends, causing sighs of relief in the wider technology sector.
The latest PCE price index also provided grounds for optimism, falling largely in line with predictions and showing continued decreases in inflation. Q1 GDP came in far lower than expected, pointing to a 0.3% contraction in the US economy, but the fall is explained by the sharp increase in imports ahead of the new tariff regime, skewing the trade balance element of the calculation. The ADP employment numbers made for dire reading however, coming in at half the expected figures. It remains to be seen if the Non-Farm Payrolls later today confirm the fall in employment. Current predictions are for 130k new jobs, so a bad miss may provoke some measure of volatility this afternoon.
Gold completed its third daily close in the red yesterday, this time ending the day at $3,238 an ounce. The precious metal is now down 7% from record highs. The Dollar on the other hand continued to push higher, finally dragging the DXY back above 100. Crypto markets pushed modestly higher yesterday, with Bitcoin rising to $97k and edging ever closer to the six-figure psychological barrier, a threshold lost back in February.
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