● Precious metals push higher
● Japanese yen reverses course
● Earnings calendar heats up
Onwards and upwards for precious metals
The week has barely started, and yet history is already being written. Gold once again started the week with a gap up, leapfrogging the $5,000 threshold and pushing higher still as the Asian session got underway. The precious metal rose almost $400 last week, which represents the largest weekly gain in absolute terms ever seen, but gold is evidently hungry for more, peaking to highs of $5,090 this morning. Silver also opened the week with a bang, from last Friday’s close of $103 per ounce, the white metal rose straight to $109 within hours of the opening bell after printing a sizeable gap of its own. The weekly chart for silver now looks like a textbook parabola, and incredibly, the metal is already up 50% so far this year. Platinum is also breaking records this morning, rising the better part of $100 and pushing north of $2,800 per ounce. Finally, palladium touched $2,100 earlier today, matching prices not seen since 2022.
Japanese yen stirs
There is something interesting brewing in currency markets. Traders may have noticed the sudden move in the yen last Friday, which saw a 1.6% swing in favour of the beleaguered Japanese currency. The yen has been bleeding for years at this point, but with a new and dramatically different government in place, the nation’s currency may finally see an end to its relentless depreciation. Speculation is rapidly mounting that Japanese authorities may intervene to defend the yen, with potential support from the US. On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York contacted financial institutions regarding the yen’s exchange rate. Such a move is very rare, and points to a coordinated effort between the US and Japan to prop up the yen.
The most famous historical example of such an intervention dates to the Plaza Accords of 1986, which resulted in a global effort to halt the rise in the US dollar. Since last year, economists have been floating the idea of a new type of accord, informally called the “Mar-a-Lago Accord”, the goal of which would be to intentionally devalue the dollar. A weaker dollar would ease US government debt repayments and make US exports cheaper, thereby improving the country’s trade balance. The dollar currency index has plummeted in light of recent developments, hitting lows of 97 early this morning, and currency markets remain on high alert for any further signs of a joint intervention. Both the dollar and the yen are crucial pillars of global capital flows, the former because of its status as world reserve currency, the latter as a vast source of funding via carry trade. Any sudden rebalancing between the two could have far-reaching consequences for financial markets at large.
The week ahead
A lot going on behind the scenes this week. Wednesday will see both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve convene to establish the interest rate on their respective currencies, and while neither is expected to budge, the subsequent press conference and comments from Fed board members will define expectations for the next FOMC meeting in March. Jerome Powell only has a few months left as Chairman, after which the Fed may strongly change course to lower rates. The earnings calendar heats up this week, with Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA) and ASML Holding (ASML) all reporting on Wednesday, although with the exception of ASML, traders will have to wait until after the closing bell to see the reports. On Thursday, Apple (AAPL), Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) all report after market close, while Exxon Mobil (XOM) reports before market open on Friday.
#Metals #JPY #Earnings
Forex volatility is one of the most important concepts traders must understand when navigating the foreign exchange market. In simple terms, it describes how much and how quickly currency prices move, which directly affects trading risk, opportunity, and strategy selection. Markets can shift from calm to aggressive in minutes, and volatility is the mechanism behind those changes.
This matters because volatility influences nearly every trading decision, from position size and stop-loss placement to time frame and strategy choice. Traders who understand forex volatility are better equipped to adapt to changing market conditions rather than being caught off guard by sudden price swings. As a result, volatility acts as a framework for aligning trading style with real-world market behaviour.
What Is Volatility in Forex?
Forex volatility is the degree and speed of price fluctuations in currency pairs over a given period. The term “forex volatility” refers to how widely prices move rather than the direction of those movements. In forex trading , volatility measures the intensity of price action, not whether a market is trending up or down.
The core principle is that higher volatility produces larger and faster price swings, while lower volatility results in more stable and predictable movement. This matters because volatility directly impacts risk exposure, trading costs, and execution quality. For this reason, traders must adjust strategy, position size, and expectations as volatility conditions change.
Key characteristics of forex volatility:
Measures price movement size, not trend direction
Expands during news events and active trading sessions
Influences spreads, slippage, and stop-loss placement
Varies significantly between currency pairs
In practice, a highly volatile pair may move hundreds of pips in a short time, while a low-volatility pair may trade within a narrow range for days. As a result, understanding volatility helps traders choose suitable markets and manage risk more effectively.
Why Is Forex Volatility Important for Traders?
Forex volatility is important because it directly influences risk, opportunity, and trade management. In simple terms, higher volatility means larger and faster price movements, while lower volatility results in slower, more stable markets. This matters because the size of price swings determines potential profit, potential loss, and how quickly trades can play out.
The key reason volatility matters is that it helps traders align their trading style and risk tolerance with current market conditions. For example, short-term traders often seek volatile markets for quick price moves, while longer-term traders may prefer moderate volatility for more controlled setups. As a result, understanding forex volatility allows traders to make more informed decisions about position size, stop-loss placement, and overall strategy selection.
Read more:10 Forex risk management tips every trader should know
What Causes Forex Volatility?
Forex volatility is driven by changes in market expectations and shifts in supply and demand for currencies. In simple terms, volatility increases when new information forces traders to rapidly reprice a currency, leading to sharper and faster price movements. This matters because sudden changes in volatility can alter trading conditions almost instantly.
The core principle is that volatility rises when uncertainty increases or when market participants react differently to new information. For this reason, the forex market can experience sharp price swings even without a clear long-term trend. The following sections introduce the key factors that influence forex volatility and explain how they affect market behaviour in practice.
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are official data releases that reflect a country’s economic health and directly influence the value of its currency. In forex trading , indicators such as GDP growth, employment data, and inflation figures help traders assess whether an economy is strengthening or weakening. This matters because stronger economic data often supports a currency, while weaker data can trigger selling pressure.
The key driver of forex volatility is not the data itself, but the difference between actual results and market expectations. When economic data significantly beats or misses forecasts, traders are forced to adjust positions quickly, leading to sharp price movements. As a result, volatility tends to increase dramatically during the release of high-impact economic indicators, particularly when markets are positioned in the wrong direction.
Political Instability
Political instability can have a powerful impact on forex volatility by undermining investor confidence and disrupting capital flows. In simple terms, uncertainty around governments, elections, or policy direction makes investors more cautious, which often leads to rapid shifts in currency demand. This matters because currencies are highly sensitive to changes in perceived political risk.
The core principle is that political uncertainty tends to increase risk-averse behaviour, pushing traders toward so-called safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, Swiss franc, or Japanese yen. As a result, markets can experience sudden spikes in volatility as funds move quickly between currencies in response to political developments, even when economic data remains unchanged.
Market Structure
Market structure refers to how the forex market operates at a micro level and how trades are executed and absorbed by liquidity. In forex trading , market structure influences short-term price movements rather than long-term fundamental trends. This matters because even in stable economic conditions, price action can become highly volatile over short periods.
The key drivers within market structure include large institutional orders, algorithmic trading, and clusters of stop-loss orders. When these elements interact, they can trigger rapid price spikes or sudden reversals as liquidity is temporarily exhausted. As a result, sharp movements can occur within minutes, creating short-lived volatility that catches unprepared traders off guard.
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment reflects the overall mood of traders and investors toward risk, often described as risk-on or risk-off behaviour. In simple terms, sentiment shows whether market participants are willing to take risk or prefer to protect capital. This matters because shifts in sentiment can drive price movements even without fresh economic data.
The core principle is that currencies move based on collective positioning and expectations, not just fundamentals. When sentiment changes suddenly, such as during periods of fear or optimism, traders may rapidly adjust positions, increasing volatility across multiple currency pairs. As a result, market sentiment can become a major driver of forex volatility during quiet news periods.
Read more:What Is Market Sentiment? Definition, Indicators and Strategies
Seasonality
Seasonality refers to time-related factors that influence trading activity and liquidity in the forex market. In forex trading , certain periods such as year-end, quarter-end, holidays, or specific trading sessions can significantly affect volatility. This matters because reduced participation from banks and institutions can change how prices behave.
The key reason seasonality affects volatility is liquidity. During quieter periods, fewer orders are available to absorb trades, meaning even modest buying or selling can cause larger price movements. As a result, reduced liquidity can amplify volatility, leading to sharper swings and less predictable price action.
Read more:Best time to trade forex: When to enter the market during the day
Read more:What is liquidity in Forex and how is it measured
Unexpected Events
Unexpected events are sudden developments that disrupt existing market expectations and force traders to reprice currencies rapidly. In simple terms, these events introduce uncertainty, which often leads to sharp and disorderly price movements. This matters because markets struggle to price risk accurately when outcomes are unclear.
The core principle is that surprise events, such as financial crises, pandemics, or sudden policy announcements, remove the ability to plan ahead. As a result, forex volatility typically increases sharply, spreads may widen, and price action can become erratic as traders react defensively.
Read more:What Is the Spread in Forex? Learn to Calculate and Trade It
Read more:Forex News
Monetary Policies
Monetary policy plays a central role in the forex market because it directly influences interest rates, liquidity, and currency demand. In forex trading , decisions made by central banks, such as adjusting interest rates, changing asset purchase programmes, or altering forward guidance, can significantly impact currency values. This matters because even small policy shifts can trigger large repricing across the market.
The key reason monetary policy affects forex volatility is expectation management. When central banks signal a change in policy stance or surprise markets with unexpected decisions, traders must rapidly adjust positions. As a result, announcements from central banks often coincide with sharp increases in forex volatility, particularly when guidance differs from what the market had priced in.
How Is Forex Volatility Measured?
Forex volatility is measured using statistical tools and technical indicators that quantify how much price fluctuates over time. In simple terms, these measurements help traders understand whether the market is calm, expanding, or experiencing extreme price movement. This matters because volatility levels influence strategy choice, stop placement, and position sizing.
The core principle is that volatility is not guessed, it is measured using objective data. For this reason, traders rely on a range of indicators to assess current and historical price movement, each offering a slightly different perspective on market conditions. The following indicators are commonly used to measure forex volatility in practice.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a volatility-based technical indicator that measures how far price deviates from its average. In forex trading , Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band, typically a 20-period simple moving average (SMA), and two outer bands plotted a set number of standard deviations above and below it. This matters because the width of the bands expands and contracts with changes in volatility.
The core principle is that wider bands indicate higher volatility, while narrower bands suggest lower volatility and consolidation. The bands are calculated by adding and subtracting one or two standard deviations from the moving average. For example, if a 20-period SMA is 1.1000 and the standard deviation is 0.0050, the upper band would be around 1.1050 and the lower band around 1.0950. As a result, traders use Bollinger Bands to identify periods of expanding volatility and potential breakout conditions.
Average True Range (ATR)
The Average True Range (ATR) is a volatility indicator that measures the average size of price movements over a specified period. In forex trading , ATR does not indicate direction; instead, it shows how much a currency pair typically moves. This matters because understanding average movement helps traders set realistic stop-loss and take-profit levels.
The core principle of ATR is the concept of true range, which considers gaps and intraday price movement. It is calculated by taking the greatest of the current high minus low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, or the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close, then averaging this over a set number of periods. For example, if a pair has an ATR of 80 pips on the daily chart, it means the price has recently moved an average of 80 pips per day. As a result, ATR provides a practical benchmark for assessing forex volatility in real trading conditions.
Read more:The best forex indicators every trader should use in 2025
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a statistical measure that shows how much price deviates from its average over a given period. In forex trading , standard deviation is used to quantify the dispersion of price movements, making it a direct measure of volatility. This matters because greater dispersion means larger and more frequent price swings.
The core principle is that higher standard deviation values indicate increased volatility, while lower values suggest more stable market conditions. For example, if a currency pair’s average price over 20 periods is 1.2000 prices frequently move far away from that level, the standard deviation will rise. As a result, traders use standard deviation to identify when markets are becoming unusually active or unusually quiet.
Historical Volatility
Historical volatility measures how much a currency pair’s price has fluctuated in the past over a specific period. In forex trading , it is calculated by analysing past price data to determine the degree of variation around an average price. This matters because it provides context on whether current market conditions are relatively calm or unusually volatile.
The key principle is that historical volatility is backward-looking. For example, if EUR/USD has averaged a 0.6% daily price change over the past 30 days, that figure represents its historical volatility for that period. As a result, traders use historical volatility to compare current price behaviour with past norms and assess whether volatility is expanding or contracting.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that can also provide insight into forex volatility. In forex trading , RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, typically over a 14-period setting. This matters because sharp, rapid price movements often coincide with rising volatility.
The core principle is that extreme RSI readings often appear during volatile market conditions. For example, when RSI moves quickly above 70 or below 30, it usually reflects strong momentum driven by heightened price swings. As a result, traders use RSI alongside other volatility tools to identify overstretched markets and periods of intensified price movement.
Read more:The best forex indicators every trader should use in 2025
Pip Movement
Pip movement is a simple and practical way to assess forex volatility by measuring how many pips a currency pair moves over a given period. In forex trading , larger daily or hourly pip ranges indicate higher volatility, while smaller ranges suggest calmer market conditions. This matters because pip movement directly reflects real price behaviour that traders experience.
The core principle is straightforward: the more pips a market moves, the more volatile it is. For example, if GBP/JPY regularly moves 150–200 pips per day while EUR/CHF averages 30–40 pips, the former is clearly more volatile. As a result, monitoring pip movement helps traders choose suitable currency pairs and adjust position sizes to match current volatility levels.
Read more:What are pips in forex and how to calculate their value
Highly Volatile Forex Pairs
Highly volatile forex pairs are currency pairs that tend to experience larger and more frequent price movements compared to others. In simple terms, these pairs move more pips in a typical trading day, creating both increased opportunity and increased risk. This matters because traders must adjust risk management and strategy when trading volatile pairs.
The core principle is that volatility is often higher in pairs that involve currencies with different economic profiles, interest rates, or sensitivity to global risk sentiment. As a result, understanding which pairs are more volatile helps traders select markets that match their experience level and trading objectives.
Common Highly Volatile Forex Pairs
Currency Pair
Type
Average Daily Range
Feature
EUR/USD
Major
Moderate
High liquidity, reacts strongly to US data
USD/JPY
Major
Moderate
Sensitive to risk sentiment and bond yields
GBP/USD
Major
High
Volatile during UK and US news releases
USD/CHF
Major
Moderate
Safe-haven flows during risk-off periods
AUD/USD
Major
High
Sensitive to commodities and China-related news
USD/CAD
Major
Moderate to High
Strongly influenced by oil prices
NZD/USD
Major
High
Lower liquidity amplifies price movement
EUR/GBP
Cross
Moderate
Driven by relative UK–EU economic outlooks
EUR/JPY
Cross
High
Combines euro flows with yen risk sensitivity
GBP/JPY
Cross
Very High
Known for large, fast price swings
In practice, pairs like GBP/JPY are often favoured by experienced traders due to their large ranges, while lower-volatility pairs may suit beginners. For this reason, volatility should always be considered alongside experience level and risk tolerance.
Read more:What is a currency pair? Definition, types, and examples
What Are the Best Strategies to Trade Forex Volatility?
Trading forex volatility requires a cautious and structured approach, as rapid price movements can amplify both opportunity and risk. In simple terms, volatile markets can work for or against traders much faster than expected. This matters because poor preparation in volatile conditions often leads to oversized losses rather than improved returns.
The core principle is not to avoid volatility, but to adapt to it. For this reason, traders use specific strategies to manage risk, control exposure, and maintain discipline when market conditions become unstable.
Risk Management
Risk management is essential when trading in highly volatile forex markets. In forex trading , increased volatility means wider price swings, which can magnify both gains and losses. This matters because even a well-timed trade can fail if risk is not controlled.
The key reason risk management becomes more important in volatile markets is unpredictability. As a result, traders often reduce leverage, widen stop-loss levels appropriately, and limit overall exposure to protect their capital.
Read more:10 Forex risk management tips every trader should know
Short-Term Trading
Short-term trading is often used in volatile markets to take advantage of rapid price movements. In simple terms, this approach focuses on shorter holding periods rather than long-term exposure. This matters because prolonged exposure increases the risk of being caught in sudden reversals.
The core principle is to respond quickly and exit trades efficiently. As a result, short-term traders aim to reduce time-based risk while still benefiting from heightened volatility.
Using Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders
Stop-loss and take-profit orders are tools used to predefine exit conditions before entering a trade. In forex trading , this helps remove emotion from decision-making, especially during fast-moving markets. This matters because volatility can trigger impulsive reactions.
The key benefit is control. As a result, traders know their maximum risk and potential reward in advance, even when prices move rapidly.
Monitoring Volatility Indicators
Monitoring volatility indicators helps traders stay aligned with current market conditions. In simple terms, indicators such as ATR or Bollinger Bands provide real-time insight into whether volatility is expanding or contracting. This matters because strategies that work in low-volatility environments often fail in high-volatility markets.
The core principle is alignment. For example, rising ATR values may prompt traders to widen stops or reduce position size. As a result, indicators support better-informed trading decisions.
Trading Multiple Currency Pairs
Different currency pairs exhibit different volatility characteristics. In forex trading , focusing on only one pair can increase exposure to a single volatility environment. This matters because volatility can change suddenly.
The key reason diversification helps is balance. As a result, trading multiple pairs can reduce reliance on one market condition and smooth overall performance.
Read more:What is a currency pair? Definition, types, and examples
Avoiding Major Market Events
Major economic releases and unexpected events often bring unpredictable volatility. In simple terms, price behaviour around such events can be erratic and difficult to manage. This matters because technical levels may temporarily lose effectiveness.
The core principle is discretion. As a result, some traders choose to stay on the sidelines during major events to avoid unnecessary risk.
Read more:ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Adjusting Position Size
Position size directly affects trading risk, especially during volatile conditions. In forex trading , higher volatility means a larger potential price move per trade. This matters because using the same position size in all conditions can increase risk exposure.
The key reason position sizing is critical is risk consistency. As a result, reducing trade size during volatile periods helps keep potential losses within acceptable limits.
FAQ – Forex Volatility
What is volatility in forex?
Forex volatility refers to the degree and speed of price fluctuations in currency pairs over a specific period. Higher volatility means larger and faster price movements, while lower volatility indicates more stable market conditions.
Is 20% volatility high?
Volatility indexes such as the VIX are expressed as percentages. Readings below 12 suggest low volatility, values between 12 and 20 indicate normal volatility, and levels above 20 are generally considered high and associated with increased market uncertainty.
Is high volatility good in forex?
High volatility creates larger price swings, which can offer more trading opportunities but also increase risk. Understanding forex volatility is essential for applying the right trading strategy and managing risk effectively in fast-moving markets.
Which strategy is best in volatility?
Strategies that focus on flexibility and risk control tend to perform better in volatile conditions. Short-term trading approaches and strict risk management are commonly used to adapt to rapid price movements.
Read more:15 Best Trading Strategies Recommended by Top Traders
What is the best volatility indicator for forex?
Bollinger Bands are widely used to assess volatility. They consist of a moving average with upper and lower bands calculated using standard deviation, allowing traders to identify expanding or contracting market conditions.
Conclusion
Forex volatility describes the magnitude and speed of price movements in the foreign exchange market and plays a central role in shaping trading conditions. In simple terms, higher volatility creates larger price swings, while lower volatility results in calmer, more stable markets. This matters because the level of volatility directly influences trading risk, potential opportunity, and decision-making.
The key takeaway is that forex volatility is neither good nor bad on its own, it depends on how well traders understand and manage it. By recognising what causes volatility, knowing how to measure it, and adapting strategies accordingly, traders can better align their approach with current market conditions. As a result, a solid understanding of forex volatility helps traders make more informed decisions, manage risk more effectively, and trade with greater consistency across different market environments.
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● Gold approaches $5,000
● Silver sets eyes on $100
● US stocks rebound
Precious metals on the verge of history
Gold and silver are both inches away from hitting seismic milestones. Gold came within $40 of the $5,000 mark earlier today, while silver pushed over $99, putting it less than a dollar away from three figures. Not one to be forgotten, platinum was up to $2,600 per ounce this morning after surging the better part of 6% yesterday. All three metals enjoyed blistering rallies yesterday and the momentum is once again fully intact as of this morning. We are only a few weeks into 2026 and gold, silver and platinum are already up by 15%, 38% and 30% respectively, completely demolishing expectations and forcing major institutions to increase forecasts for precious metals. While tensions surrounding Greenland have abated in the latter half of this week, safe-haven flows have not. For now, precious metals are enjoying the view from the top.
US stock markets rebound
US stocks have all but recovered from the selloff earlier in the week after enjoying a modest rally over the last two sessions, with the Dow Jones in particular almost notching a new record intra-day high on Thursday. Wall Street had extra reason to be optimistic yesterday after the latest revision to Q3 GDP growth, which revealed that the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 4.4% in the third quarter, beating previous estimates. The Dollar continued its slide against other major currencies yesterday, pushing the Pound up to $1.35 and the Euro up to $1.175. The exception is the Japanese Yen, which is fast approaching record lows against the Dollar, nearing 159 Yen. Meanwhile, in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is once again anchored to the middle of the same price range it has been enjoying since November, sitting comfortably just under $90,000 per coin.
#Metals #DJI
● Gold blasts through $4,800
● Markets in risk-off mode
● Global bonds in disarray
Markets in risk-off mode
As one would expect, events surrounding Greenland are leading the news cycle, including new tariff threats between the US and Europe, but tensions may ramp up in earnest later today with President Trump’s appearance at the Davos summit in Switzerland.
Suffice to say markets are in risk-off mode for the time being. Traders took money off the table early this week, with stocks and cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt of the selloff. Stock indices around the world continued to fall yesterday, but the declines in the US were particularly sharp due to American market closures on Monday, forcing traders to catch up to the losses in Europe and the Far East. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all closed yesterday’s session in the red, although the selling pressure has lacked any real degree of conviction so far. The flight to safe-haven assets pushed Bitcoin below the $90,000 threshold yesterday but there too the damage appears to be contained for now and cryptocurrencies are back in the green as of this morning. The selloff in the US Dollar is somewhat more convincing, pushing the DXY down to the mid-98 range.
Safe-haven flows lift gold
The real winner in all of this is of course gold. The precious metal has gone from strength to strength so far this week, breaching $4,700 for the first time on Tuesday, and fully maintaining its momentum during this morning’s session. The metal now sits above $4,860 per ounce and the question of the all-important $5k milestone is on everyone’s mind. Silver is asking its own questions after briefly venturing above $95 yesterday, but unfortunately the white metal was unwilling to provide any answers this morning, instead dipping back down below $94. Platinum and palladium remain on the front foot, although current flows firmly favour gold.
Bond markets in disarray
Woes in the Japanese bond market deepened yesterday, with yields on thirty-year government bonds spiking to decade-highs. Yields have been climbing steadily for months, but after Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi called a snap election on Monday, investors are increasingly concerned about potential monetary stimulus down the line. The rise in bond yields is certainly more pronounced in Japan, but given the global nature of debt markets, the phenomenon is spreading to long-term US, UK and German bonds as well, which have all seen modest selloffs this week. Rising bond yields will lead to higher borrowing costs in general, to which world leaders are very sensitive.
#Gold #Bond
From processing power to computer memory
Artificial Intelligence took the world by storm in 2025 and every company even remotely associated with the sector saw their stock price increase dramatically. Vocal supporters of AI, such as Palantir (PLTR) and Alphabet (GOOG), rose 135% and 65% respectively last year. The companies building the chips required to train and run AI models also shot up. Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were all fantastic plays last year, and these companies are likely to remain in the spotlight for much of 2026 as well. Chip manufacturers are a major piece of the AI puzzle, but so too are the companies responsible for providing memory and data storage. Vast amounts of computing power need to be matched with vast amounts short- and long-term storage capacity. While deeply intertwined, chip fabrication and memory/storage manufacturing are separate businesses. Up until now, attentions have been firmly focused on the former.
While Micron Technology (MU) absolutely smashed through the ceiling last year, gaining 240% in 2025, the company’s share price remains relatively down to earth compared to some of the price-to-earnings ratios seen in the wider technology sector. Although not as complex of an industry, memory can be just as much of a bottleneck to production as chip manufacturing. Just as with chipmakers, memory producers are a very small group of companies. Samsung, Hynix and Micron make up the vast majority of the market, with very little manufacturing capacity found outside of these big three.
The bottlenecks do not stop there either. Chip manufacturing and memory are arguably the larger components, but the AI sector depends on far more. Data servers, cloud computing, cybersecurity and high-speed, high-bandwidth infrastructure all play their part, but so too do the end user applications, including IoT devices, automation and software. All the companies downstream of developments in artificial intelligence are likely to garner their fair share of investor attention at some stage. Just as market sentiment trickled down from gold, to silver, to other metals last year, the AI sector may well experience a similar process in 2026.
Energy markets and Small Modular Reactors
Another crucial part of the Artificial Intelligence sector is the energy required to run it. The training of AI models is an extremely power-hungry activity that requires consistent and reliable sources of electricity. While oil and gas have traditionally provided much of the power used in heavy industry, modern tech companies are typically looking for something more on the green side. Wind and solar are all well and good, but do not meet the consistency requirement of data centres and server farms. Nuclear is the path forward, and the field is projected to see a sharp rebound in 2026. Meta Platforms (META) recently announced a 20-year agreement to buy nuclear power from Vistra (VST), while also committing to help the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) with Oklo (OKLO) and TerraPower. A collaboration between X-Energy, another SMR developer, and Amazon Web Services is being established. Digital infrastructure company Equinix (EQIX) is in partnership with Rolls-Royce SMR in an effort to pursue clean energy for its AI-driven data centres. The list goes on.
After many years of stagnation and plant closures across the world, the nuclear industry is undergoing somewhat of a renaissance. The sector has traditionally relied on huge, state-funded plants that require decades of construction and commissioning. Many such plants are currently undergoing refits and upgrades, but in the short term, something more flexible is needed. Emerging sectors of technology need clean, reliable power, and they need it now. Small modular reactors mark a completely different approach to the matter. Production is intended to be streamlined and commercially viable, pushing out mass-produced individual components that can be assembled on site, as and when power requirements arise. Need more power? Add a second reactor, or even a third and fourth. Nuclear startup companies are springing up across the world, with largely aligned goals and design philosophies.
The more complex an industry, the more complex its supply chains. Just as with the AI sector, the nuclear sector is heavily dependent on a huge number of sub-industries, all of which contribute to the larger picture. The most obvious to come to mind is probably the uranium mining industry, directly accessible via several ETFs. Enrichment and fuel assembly manufacturers come next. Reactor pressure vessels and steam generators both require advanced forging facilities – a relatively limited field. Turbines and electricity generating systems; electrical integration and substations; exotic materials for radiation-resistant components; civil engineering; software; waste management… The nuclear industry has a deep and diverse supply chain, each component of which is likely to benefit from renewed interest in the sector as a whole.
This is the year for cryptocurrencies (for real this time)
If there is one word that could describe cryptocurrencies in 2025, it would be the word “disappointing”. Bitcoin may well have hit an all-time high in October of last year, but it is fair to say that most people were expecting a little more than what they got. Bitcoin topped out at around $69,000 in 2021, a target that would not even be doubled in the subsequent bull run, which saw peaks of around $125,000. BTC would end the year around 6% in the red, meaning it got outperformed by basically everything. A savings account would have been a better bet. Storing money under a mattress would have yielded better results. The wider crypto market fared even worse than Bitcoin did. The fact that such a performance occurred during a year where every major stock market and precious metal hit a record high, only adds insult to injury.
Institutional interest was certainly present. ETFs saw huge inflows, strategic cryptocurrency reserves took off, and the regulation side of things was far more positive compared to previous years. And yet, the entire market felt boring, uneventful, subdued. Tamed, some might say. This is the problem with institutional money. The crypto sphere is starting to get the recognition it always craved. It should have been careful with what it wished for.
If the GENIUS Act was a small step in the right direction, then the Clarity Act would have been a giant leap in comparison. A number of events were supposed to occur last year, but because of the government shutdown in the United States, they did not. The Clarity Act is not dead by any means, but like any major piece of legislation, it is at the mercy of powerful interests and partisanship. The bill would set the stage for what is acceptable and what is not, and under which regulatory body different practices would fall. This is essentially the green light for companies who have already built vast networks of decentralised financial infrastructure but are unable to flip the switch out of fear of legal action. A frustrating situation. The nonsensical hype is over, soon to be replaced by novel financial instruments that should be beneficial to all. Once the relevant legislation comes into effect, both in the US and globally, the flood gates will open, and cryptocurrencies may finally enter a new era.
● New record high for gold
● Silver reclaims $93
● Modest selloff in Bitcoin
Greenland jolts markets
Gold opened the Monday session with yet another gap to the upside this morning, in what is now becoming a regular move. The precious metal wasted no time pushing to highs of $4,690 per ounce within hours of the opening bell, setting yet another record high. Silver is also on the front foot this morning, reclaiming $93 per ounce and recovering nicely from the selloff that occurred at the end of last week. Greenland appears to be the setting for the latest drama, with President Trump threatening to impose tariffs on the European nations getting in the way of any potential deal involving the arctic nation. Platinum, palladium and other metals have not responded to the ongoing situation as of yet, remaining neutral so far morning. US and European stock futures alike are down in light of the new developments. Over in the digital world, Bitcoin sold off sharply early this morning, pushing prices down to $91,000 and successfully dousing the momentum painstakingly scrambled together over the course of last week.
The week ahead
Inflation is the name of the game this week, with countries from around the world lining up to deliver their respective consumer price indices. The Eurozone and Canada will publish their latest figures later today, while the UK will follow on Wednesday. Thursday promises to be a busy day for the economic calendar, with the final revision of US GDP third quarter growth, followed by the delayed PCE price index for October and November, as well as personal spending and income for those two months. The PCE index would usually play a considerable part in steering the Fed’s decision-making process, but the data are several months out of date at this point, and markets are fully pricing in a rate hold during next week’s FOMC meeting. The Japanese government is set to release inflation figures on Friday, before the Bank of Japan delivers what is widely expected to be a rate hold on the Yen. Scheduled economic publications aside, events surrounding Greenland are likely to dominate market sentiment for a while, although ongoing developments in Iran are not to be overlooked either.
#Gold #Silver #CPI