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MARKET WATCH

Markets dazed and confused

November 2025

  ●  Future rate cuts uncertain   ●  Dollar gains strength   ●  Friday NFP report unlikely Future rate cuts uncertain Only two months left in 2025 and market participants are, understandably, struggling to get the lay of the land. The US government closure has dragged on for over a month, surpassing most expectations, and unless the deadlock finds a resolution within the next two days, the shutdown will become the longest in history. The October NFP report never materialised, and in all likelihood the November release, scheduled for Friday, will not be published on time either. The lack of government data is hardly the end of the world, particularly given the woefully inaccurate figures provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in recent times, but the absence of job numbers is starting to make the Fed jittery about lowering rates. A December rate cut had been somewhat priced in, but is now no longer a certainty, leaving markets on unsure footing. Dollar gains strength Recent events have carried the US dollar to three-month highs against other major currencies. Against the Japanese yen, the difference has been even more stark, with USDJPY climbing to highs not seen since February. The DXY is still below 100, but not by much. A stronger dollar has steadied flows into gold, which is struggling to stay above $4,000 per ounce this morning. Precious metals are still coming to terms with the progress made on the trade war front, which has dealt a minor blow to the safe-haven narrative. Cryptocurrencies are having an even worse time today, with Bitcoin falling below $108k earlier in the session and the wider crypto sphere faring even worse. October started strongly for cryptocurrencies, but it is safe to say that “Uptober” failed miserably, with the combined crypto market capitalisation losing around $200 billion over the course of the month. The week ahead The economic calendar remains uncertain due to the US shutdown, but there is enough to keep traders occupied with or without government data. Manufacturing PMIs dominate Monday’s proceedings, with fresh data from Europe and the US later in the day. Tuesday brings us an interest rate decision on the Australian dollar, where the RBA is expected to maintain rates at 3.6%. Wednesday gives way to services PMIs, but also the ADP employment change, which is currently the only pulse markets have on the US labour market. On Thursday, the Bank of England will convene to decide the fate of the Pound, which is widely expected to hold steady at 4%. Despite being the first Friday of the month, it is unlikely that markets will have much to get excited about, with most analysts not anticipating a timely NFP report. #RateCut #CPI #USD

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RM NEWS ROOM

New products are now available on MT5

04 November, 2025

Radex Markets is excited to inform you that we have launched 63 new FX pairs, 7 NDFs (including USD/BRL), and 2 new spot metals – Palladium (XPDUSD) and Platinum (XPTUSD). This expands our total offering from 49 FX pairs and 2 metals to a much broader range. All products are now live and available for clients to trade on MT5 Live accounts (please note: not available on MT5 Demo at this stage). Leverage Highlights:  - Up to 1:500 for Scandinavian crosses and major-minor pairs.  - 1:200 for CNH, PLN, CZK, HUF pairs.  - 1:100 or lower for ZAR, ILS, MXN, TRY, THB, and precious metals. Notable Additions:  - Emerging market pairs & NDFs: USD/BRL, USD/INR, USD/IDR, etc.  - New Metals pairs: Palladium (XPDUSD) and Platinum (XPTUSD), both at 1:100 leverage. Start exploring these new trading opportunities today on your MT5 Live account. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact the RADEX MARKETS support team.

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR

( GMT +03:00 13:06 )
March 26, 2024
2025-11-04 21:45:00+00:00NZUnemployment Rate Q3
2025-11-05 04:00:00+00:00IDGDP Growth Rate YoY Q3
2025-11-05 04:00:00+00:00IDGDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3

TRADER'S PICK

Indices: The market’s greatest compilation album

November 04, 2025

Trading the financial markets is a bit like choosing your favourite fairground ride. Some people love the bumper cars of forex where it is quick, chaotic, and full of unexpected collisions. Others prefer the rollercoaster of indices, a lot smoother most of the time, but with the occasional sharp drop that leaves your stomach twisted in knots. What exactly are indices, and why do traders bother with them? Well, an index (plural: indices, not “indexes”) is essentially a basket of stocks grouped together to give us a snapshot of how a market, sector, or economy is doing. Think of it as the “Netflix Top 10” for financial markets; instead of telling you which shows everyone’s binging, it shows you which companies are making investors happy (or crying). But here’s the kicker: indices aren’t just for economists wearing geeky glasses or Wall Street traders with ten cups of coffee in their system. Thanks to modern brokerages, everyday traders can speculate on the rise and fall of entire economies without having to pick individual stocks. It’s like betting on the whole football league instead of trying to guess whether your team will turn up and play well on match day. In this article, we’re going to break down what indices actually are, how they’re categorized, what makes their prices move, and why some traders love them, while others swear by forex. We’ll also look at the drama that sends these markets up and down, because let’s face it, if you can’t laugh at central bank press conferences, you’ll end up crying into your economic calendar. What Are Indices? Let’s start with the basics: an index (plural “indices” if you want to impress your fellow traders, or “indexes” if you’re in the U.S. and don’t care) is essentially a scoreboard for a group of stocks. Instead of tracking one single company, like Apple or Amazon, an index bundles a collection of them together to give you a big-picture view of how a market or sector is performing. Some of the most famous indices include:   ●   The S&P 500 – tracks 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. If the S&P 500 sneezes, Wall Street usually catches a cold.   ●   The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, WS30, US30) – one of the oldest indices markets, with just 30 companies including McDonalds, Microsoft, Visa and Walmart.   ●   The FTSE 100 – the top 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. Heavily influenced by oil and mining, so when commodity prices wobble, so does the FTSE.   ●   The DAX – Germany’s top 40 companies, often seen as Europe’s economic bellwether. Companies include Adidas, BMW and Airbus.   ●   The Nikkei 225 – Japan’s big one, reflecting its powerhouse corporations like Panasonic, Toyota, and Nintendo (yes, even Mario has a stake in this). In short, indices give traders an easy way to measure and trade the performance of entire markets, without needing a spreadsheet big enough to track hundreds of individual stocks. And thanks to brokerages offering CFDs, ETFs, and futures, you don’t need to be a Wall Street insider to jump on board. How Indices Are Categorized Just like streaming services sort movies into “Action,” “Horror,” and “You may also like….,” indices are grouped into categories too. This makes them easier to follow and helps traders figure out which flavour of chaos they want to trade. Here are the main ways indices are organized: 1. Market Capitalization Weighted This is the most common type. Companies with bigger market values (price × number of shares) carry more weight in the index. The S&P 500 is a classic example. Giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon have so much influence that if they trip over their own shoelaces, the entire index grazes their knees. 2. Price Weighted This one makes less sense on paper but has survived tradition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is price-weighted, meaning a company’s stock price determines its influence, not its size. So, a company with a higher share price can disproportionately move the index, even if it’s smaller overall. It’s kind of like letting the person with the loudest voice run the meeting, regardless of whether or not they know what they’re talking about. 3. Equal Weighted Here, each company has the same influence on the index, no matter how big or small it is. Equal-weight indices give the little guys some power, which is great, but also means the overall performance may look very different compared to their heavier weighted cousins. 4. Sector-Based Indices These track specific industries, like tech, energy, or healthcare. If you’re convinced renewable energy is the next big thing, you can trade an energy index. If you’re sure everyone will still need pills and doctors in 50 years (safe bet), there’s a healthcare index for that. 5. Regional and Global Indices Some indices represent national markets (FTSE 100 for the UK, DAX for Germany), while others combine multiple markets. For example, the MSCI World Index bundles companies from around the globe. The way an index is categorized affects how it moves and how much influence individual companies or sectors can have. A cap-weighted index like the S&P 500 can rise or fall on the back of just a few mega-cap companies, while a sector-based index might spike if one industry suddenly gets hot (or crash when it isn’t). Before you decide to trade an index, it’s worth checking how it’s built; otherwise, you might be expecting a gentle stroll in the park and find yourself running a marathon. What Moves the Indices markets? If indices are the “Greatest Hits Compilation Albums” of the financial world, then what makes the tracks go up or down in the charts? The truth is that indices are moody creatures. They don’t just react to one thing: they’re influenced by an array of events, from economic reports to company gossip. Let’s look at the usual suspects: 1. Economic News & Investor Sentiment Economic announcements are like plot twists in a movie, everybody reacts, often dramatically. Inflation figures, GDP growth, unemployment data, and especially central bank announcements (shout out to the Federal Reserve) can send indices swinging. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report in the U.S. is a classic: released once a month, it can make markets dance like your dad after a few too many. If the numbers surprise traders, you’ll see sudden spikes in volatility across indices like the S&P 500 and Dow. Investor sentiment also plays a huge role. If the mood is optimistic, indices climb. If traders panic, they tumble. Sometimes it doesn’t even matter if the news is objectively “good” or “bad”. What matters is how investors feel about it. It’s basically the financial version of an AA meeting. 2. Company Financial Results When companies that make up an index release earnings reports, their share prices move, and the index moves with them. This is especially true in weighted indices, where the big players like Apple, Microsoft, or Tesla can drag the whole index up or down on their own. 3. Company Announcements Changes in company leadership, mergers, acquisitions, or scandals all ripple through indices. A new CEO could inspire confidence and push share prices higher, or they could tank the stock faster than you can say “Twitter rebrand.” Think back to the recent Elon Musk Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) saga, Tesla’s share price went into freefall and in the end, Musk stepped away from his government appointed role. These announcements are often unpredictable, and that unpredictability is what traders live (and occasionally cry) for. 4. Changes to Index Composition Indices aren’t static, they are updated to reflect the changing market. Companies can be added or removed depending on their performance. When a company joins an index, demand for its shares often spikes because funds tracking the index need to buy in. When one is booted out, well, it’s like being voted out of the exclusive club, demand collapses. Traders anticipate these changes, which means prices often shift dramatically around rebalancing periods. It’s the financial equivalent of musical chairs. 5. Commodity Prices Some indices are heavily tied to commodities. The FTSE 100, for example, has about 15% of its companies in the oil and mining sectors. If oil prices tank, the FTSE often follows. Germany’s DAX, meanwhile, is sensitive to energy and manufacturing costs, while Japan’s Nikkei gets rattled by shifts in energy imports. In other words, commodities act like background music for indices: you might not notice it at first, but it sets the mood for everything else. So, whether it is central bankers mumbling about interest rates, Apple announcing record iPhone sales, or oil prices spiking because of unrest in an oil-producing region, indices will react. Sometimes violently. Sometimes irrationally. But always in a way that keeps traders glued to their screens and their coffee pots. Indices vs Forex: The Face-Off Advantages of Trading Indices 1. Built-In Diversification   ●  Indices give exposure to multiple companies at once. If one stock stumbles, others may cushion the fall.   ●  Forex? You’re betting on single currency pairs, so swings can be sudden and brutal. 2. Clear Influences   ●  Economic reports, corporate earnings, and commodities often give a logical explanation for movements.   ●  Forex moves can feel like guessing which way a cat will jump—central bank interventions, geopolitical tensions, or even a single politician’s offhand comment can move the market. 3. Less Chaotic During Off-Hours   ●  Many indices have defined trading hours and lower volatility outside these periods.   ●  Forex trades 24/5, meaning someone, somewhere, is always moving the market. Sleep? What sleep? 4. Theme-Based Opportunities   ●  Indices let you trade broad economic or sectoral themes: tech boom, energy crisis, etc.   ●  Forex themes exist too, but it’s more abstract: “risk-on” vs “risk-off” days, and nobody ever explains why. Disadvantages of Trading Indices (vs Forex) 1. Limited Trading Hours   ●  Some indices don’t trade 24/5, so you can miss opportunities.   ●  Forex never sleeps (well, except over the weekend). 2. Lower Leverage   ●  Brokerages often limit leverage on indices compared to currency pairs.   ●  In forex, small moves can be amplified spectacularly good or bad. 3. Big Companies Can Dominate   ●  Weighted indices can be skewed by a handful of giants.   ●  Forex doesn’t have a single “company” that can tank a pair. 4. Margins Can Be Higher   ●  Trading indices may require bigger capital than forex positions. Advantages of Trading Forex   ●  24/5 market – trade whenever you like.   ●  High liquidity – EUR/USD alone trades more daily than most indices combined.   ●  High leverage – a small move can make a huge profit (or loss).   ●  Macro-driven – easier to focus on economic trends rather than individual company drama. Disadvantages of Forex   ●  Extreme volatility – sudden swings can wipe out your account.   ●  Central bank interventions – governments can surprise traders.   ●  Fewer thematic trades – it’s harder to “ride a tech boom” here.   ●  Political shocks – tariffs, elections, wars, speeches—all can move currencies fast. Bottom Line Forex is like playing ping-pong with central bankers: fast, unpredictable, and sometimes ruthless. Indices are more like following a football league: exciting, with clear favourites, dramatic underdogs, and occasional surprises. Risks & Rewards of Trading Indices Trading indices can be fun but occasionally make you question your life choices. But is it a ride worth taking? Understanding the risks and rewards beforehand makes the experience a lot more enjoyable. 1. The Rewards Diversification:   ●  Trading indices spreads your exposure across multiple companies. If one stock stumbles, others can soften the blow. This built-in diversification can make indices more stable than individual stocks, especially during earnings season. Liquidity:   ●  Popular indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and FTSE 100 are highly liquid. You can enter and exit trades easily without worrying about “no buyers” or “phantom sellers.” Potential for Steady Growth:   ●  Over the long term, major indices tend to rise with the economy. While there are dips and crashes, long-term traders can benefit from gradual upward trends. Clear Market Signals:   ●  Because indices represent broader markets, it’s often easier to spot trends than with single stocks. Technical analysis and economic indicators can give a better sense of where the market is headed. 2. The Risks Volatility:   ●  Indices can swing dramatically during economic news releases, geopolitical events, or company-specific shocks. Even diversified indices aren’t immune to wild market moves. Leverage Risks:   ●  Trading through CFDs or futures often involves leverage. While this amplifies gains, it also magnifies losses. One bad trade can wipe out weeks—or months—of careful gains. Emotional Rollercoaster:   ●  Watching an index drop 2% while your positions are open can feel like stomach-churning horror. Traders need discipline, stop-losses, and perhaps a strong coffee or two. Market Influences Beyond Your Control:   ●  Central bank decisions, sudden geopolitical tensions, or commodity price shocks can move indices in unexpected ways. Even the best analysis can’t predict everything. 3. And Finally….. Trading indices offers a balance between the thrill of individual stocks and the broad stability of diversified portfolios. For those who enjoy strategic thinking, technical analysis, and staying on top of economic news, indices can be a rewarding playground. But remember even the most stable indices will have their wild days. Always trade responsibly, use proper risk management, and don’t forget, sometimes it’s perfectly fine to step back, breathe, and remind yourself that the market doesn’t care about you or your feelings.

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