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Financial Analyst/Content Writer, RADEX MARKETS
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
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Markets have been starved for economic data all month due to the shutdown of the US government, but last Friday, traders were finally thrown a bone in the form of September CPI figures. The delayed report revealed that while headline inflation ticked up to 3.0% from 2.9% the month prior, core inflation actually fell from 3.1% down to 3.0% last month. Both figures came in below expectations and no doubt prompted a few sighs of relief among market participants. While everyone is still in the dark regarding the US labour market, the fact that inflationary pressures are at least partially under control is a good sign as far as the Fed is concerned. The central bank was already widely expected to reduce rates by a further quarter of a percentage point during Wednesday’s meeting, but in the eyes of many, the most recent CPI report has cemented the cut. US indices certainly reacted accordingly, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closing at record highs on Friday.
The meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is set to go ahead on Thursday. The obvious goal of the discussion is to resolve the ongoing trade war between the two nations and to come to an agreement regarding rare earth exports and tariffs. Whether or not the talks lead to any tangible results is almost irrelevant at this point – such accords take time to establish. The interesting part is the fact that the two leaders are willing to meet at all. The sudden easing of tensions between the US and China has raised questions about the long-term viability of safe-haven flows into gold. The precious metal did not react well to the news of a meeting last week and is not showing much optimism going into this week either. Gold opened low this morning and is currently below $4,100 per ounce. Silver is also down more than one percent as of this morning. Once again, we are seeing an inverse relationship with cryptocurrencies, which have been comparatively buoyant in recent days, pushing Bitcoin back above $115k earlier today.
It will be a busy week for central banks. Top of the list is the aforementioned Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower rates on the dollar by 25-bps to 4% on Wednesday. On the same day, the Bank of Canada will convene to decide the rate on the Canadian dollar, which is also forecast to receive a 25-bps cut to 2.25%. A day later, in the early hours of Thursday morning, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain rates on the yen at 0.5% while the European Central Bank will keep rates at 2.15% on the Euro later that same day.
Interest rate decisions aside, it will also be a huge week for earnings. Visa (V) is scheduled to report on Tuesday; Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) and META all report on Wednesday; Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY) and Mastercard (MA) report on Thursday; finally, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and AbbVie (ABBV) report on Friday.
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