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If you’ve ever sat in front of your trading platform, eyes glazed over, wondering “When exactly is the best time to trade forex?”, you’re not alone. Many traders, especially beginners, burn themselves out by trying to monitor charts 24/5, thinking opportunity could strike at any moment. The truth is, the forex market may be open around the clock, but not all hours are created equal.
The foreign exchange market (forex) is the largest financial market in the world, with daily turnover exceeding US$7.5 trillion according to the Bank for International Settlements (2022). That’s bigger than the stock and bond markets combined. It operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, across a global network of banks, financial institutions, corporations, and individual traders like you.
This constant activity might sound like paradise for traders, after all, you can buy or sell currencies at any time. But here’s the catch: liquidity (the ease of buying and selling) and volatility (how much prices move) aren’t consistent throughout the day. Certain trading hours bring higher activity, tighter spreads, and clearer price trends, while others can feel like watching paint dry.
That’s why understanding the best time to trade forex is so important. By aligning your trading schedule with the market’s most active hours, you can:
In short: trading smarter, not longer.
Although the forex market runs 24 hours a day, it’s not buzzing with equal energy all the time. Instead, activity is split into four main trading sessions, each tied to a major financial hub. These sessions overlap and pass the baton to one another, creating a near-continuous market.
Here are the four primary forex trading sessions you need to know:
Why sessions matter
Each session has its own “unique personality.” Liquidity, volatility, and trading opportunities depend on which markets are awake and which currencies are in focus. For instance, GBP/USD typically sees the most action during the London and New York sessions, while AUD/JPY can be more active during Sydney and Tokyo hours.
Forex Trading Hours Summary Table
Session |
GMT Hours (Standard) |
GMT Hours (DST) |
Key Currencies |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 21:00 – 06:00 | 21:00 – 06:00 | AUD, NZD, JPY | Sets the tone for the week; overlaps with Tokyo. |
| Tokyo | 00:00 – 09:00 | 00:00 – 09:00 | JPY, AUD, NZD | Lower volatility; best for range trading. |
| London | 08:00 – 17:00 | 07:00 – 16:00 | EUR, GBP, CHF | Highest liquidity; sets global market trends. |
| New York | 13:00 – 22:00 | 12:00 – 21:00 | USD, CAD, MXN | Driven by U.S. data; overlaps with London = most active period. |
When traders talk about the best time to trade forex, the London session almost always tops the list. London is Europe’s financial hub, handling roughly 35% of all global forex transactions (BIS, 2022). That means more traders, more liquidity, and more opportunity.
Characteristics of the London Session
Advantages
Disadvantages
If London is the heavyweight champ of forex, New York is its sparring partner. Together, these two sessions dominate the global market. The New York session accounts for about 17% of total forex turnover, and because it overlaps with London for several hours, this is often seen as the most active and liquid period of the entire trading day.
Characteristics of the New York Session
Advantages
Disadvantages
The Tokyo session marks the start of the Asian trading day and is the hub for Japanese, Australian, and New Zealand currencies. While it generally sees lower volatility than London or New York, it still offers excellent opportunities for traders who prefer range trading or early positioning.
Characteristics of the Tokyo Session
Advantages
Disadvantages
The Sydney session kicks off the trading week and is the first major forex market to open on Sunday evening (GMT). While it’s the smallest of the four main sessions in terms of trading volume, it plays an important role in setting the tone for the Asian trading day.
Characteristics of the Sydney Session
Advantages
Disadvantages
The best time to trade forex is generally during session overlaps, when multiple major markets are active simultaneously. These periods feature higher liquidity, tighter spreads, and stronger price movements, creating ideal conditions for trading.
The three key overlaps to focus on are:
Timing: 12:00 PM – 4:00 PM GMT (summer) / 13:00 – 17:00 GMT (winter) Duration: 4 hours Market Characteristics: Highest liquidity and volatility of the day; major trends often form here. Key Currency Pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
Pair |
Average Pip Move |
Key Features |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1-2 | Most traded pair; highly liquid |
| GBP/USD | 1-2 | Sensitive to UK & US news |
| USD/JPY | 1-2 | Driven by US & Japanese events |
| USD/CHF | 1-2 | Stable, influenced by risk sentiment |
| GBP/JPY | 2-3 | Higher volatility, “the dragon” |
Opportunities: Trend trading, breakout strategies, news trading Risk Management: Use stop losses; be cautious during major economic releases Participants: European and U.S. institutional traders, retail traders worldwide Economic News Impact: U.S. economic releases (NFP, CPI, GDP) and European data heavily influence price action.
Timing: 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM GMT Duration: 1 hour Market Characteristics: Transitional volatility; bridges Asian and European sessions Key Currency Pairs: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/CHF
Pair |
Average Pip Move |
Key Features |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | 3-5 | Influenced by Asian commodity news |
| AUD/USD | 3-5 | Driven by Australian economic events |
| NZD/USD | 3-5 | Sensitive to Asian market sentiment |
| NZD/JPY | 3-5 | Lower liquidity, gradual movements |
Timing: 2:00 AM – 4:00 AM GMT Duration: 2 hours Market Characteristics: Moderate volatility; range-bound conditions Key Currency Pairs: AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, NZD/JPY
Pair |
Average Pip Move |
Key Features |
|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | 3-5 | Influenced by Asian commodity news |
| AUD/USD | 3-5 | Driven by Australian economic events |
| NZD/USD | 3-5 | Sensitive to Asian market sentiment |
| NZD/JPY | 3-5 | Lower liquidity, gradual movements |
Opportunities: Range trading, early positioning before Europe opens Risk Management: Adjust expectations for smaller moves; tight stops may trigger prematurely Participants: Asia-Pacific traders and early European participants Economic News Impact: Australian and Japanese economic data, commodity market updates.
Summary Table: Overlapping Sessions
Overlap |
Duration |
Economic Data Impact |
Trader Participation |
Key Characteristics |
Active Currency Pairs |
Average Spread (pips) |
Opportunities |
Risk Management Tips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| London–New York | 4 hrs | US & European releases | Very high | Highest liquidity, volatility | EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY | 1-2 | Trend trading, breakouts | Tight stops, watch for news |
| Tokyo–London | 1 hr | Early European data | Medium | Transitional volatility | EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/CHF | 2-4 | Breakout from Asian ranges | Allow wider stops |
| Sydney–Tokyo | 2 hrs | Australian & Japanese data | Low–Medium | Range-bound conditions | AUD/JPY, NZD/USD | 3-5 | Range trading, early positioning | Manage expectations for smaller moves |
For beginners, the key to successful forex trading isn’t jumping into the market 24/5, it is choosing the times that balance opportunity, liquidity, and manageability.
Why Timing Matters for Beginners
Recommended Trading Windows for Beginners
Practical Tips for Beginners
By selecting the right sessions and starting small, beginners can learn faster, manage risk effectively, and build confidence in forex trading.
Choosing the best time to trade forex is not just about looking at the clock. Several key factors influence market activity, volatility, and trading opportunities. Understanding these helps traders align their strategies with the optimal trading windows.
Economic News Releases
Major economic reports can dramatically impact currency values, making timing essential.
Tip: Beginners should avoid trading immediately before high-impact news unless using a dedicated news trading strategy.
Liquidity and Volatility Levels
Patterns to note:
Understanding these patterns allows traders to match their strategies with market conditions.
Global Events and Geopolitics
Unexpected events can shake the markets:
Impact on forex:
Tip: Track global headlines and know which sessions are active when news breaks to anticipate market reaction.
Day-of-the-Week Effect
The forex market behaves differently on each day:
Certain recurring economic releases follow weekly patterns (e.g., U.S. NFP on the 1st of the month Fridays, Australian trade data on Thursdays).
Market Session Overlaps
Overlaps create peak trading conditions:
Key Overlaps:
Central Bank Announcements
Tip: Many traders reduce exposure or avoid trading around central bank events unless using news-based strategies.
Knowing the best trading hours is only part of the forex trading puzzle. To start trading forex effectively, beginners and experienced traders alike should follow a structured approach.
Step 1: Focus on Market Overlaps
Step 2: Stay Informed on Economic Trends
Step 3: Select the Right Trading Method
Step 4: Implement Risk Management
Step 5: Practice and Track Your Performance
By combining optimal trading hours, awareness of economic events, the right strategies, and proper risk management, traders can maximise profit potential while minimising unnecessary stress.
Q1: When is the best time to trade forex?
The best time to trade forex is during session overlaps, especially the London–New York overlap (12:00 PM – 4:00 PM GMT / 13:00 – 17:00 BST).
Q2: What’s the easiest time of day for a beginner to trade forex?
Beginners often find the middle of the London session (08:00 – 12:00 GMT / 09:00 – 13:00 BST) easiest:
Q3: What is the most profitable time to trade forex?
The London–New York overlap is generally the most profitable due to:
Pro Tip: Profit potential is maximized when paired with solid risk management.
Q4: What are the most difficult months to trade forex?
August and December are often considered challenging trading times:
Q5: Why is the forex market closed on weekends?
Understanding the best time to trade forex is essential for both beginners and experienced traders. By focusing on major session overlaps, monitoring economic news, and aligning trading strategies with periods of high liquidity and volatility, traders can maximise their profit potential while managing risk effectively.
For UK-based traders, the London session and the London–New York overlap offer the most convenient and profitable trading windows. Beginners benefit from starting during calmer periods of the London session to practice technical analysis and develop confidence before tackling the more volatile overlaps.
Remember, successful forex trading isn’t just about timing, it is about combining knowledge, strategy, risk management, and consistency. By carefully selecting the right sessions, focusing on your preferred currency pairs, and keeping track of global economic events, you can trade smarter, not harder.
In short: trade during the best times, stay informed, manage your risks, and let the market work in your favour.
October 02, 2025
As the clock struck midnight on Capitol Hill, the Senate had not managed to agree to a new funding bill, meaning all non-essential government functions have effectively shut down. Hundreds of thousands of government employees will be furloughed until further notice. Crucially for financial markets, the public bodies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data are no longer in operation, which means that there will be no NFP this Friday. However unlikely, it is possible that a deal will be reached over the coming day or two, but for now traders will have to navigate the charts without US economic data.
Many stock markets around the world ended Q3 on a high note yesterday. The third quarter was a roaring success for US indices, with the Dow Jones gaining 5% over the last three months, the S&P 500 climbing almost 8% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 11% over the same time frame. Such performances are all the more impressive given September’s reputation as one of the toughest months for US stocks. In the UK, the FTSE 100 also overperformed, closing the quarter 6.7% higher; meanwhile in Asia, the Hong Kong-based Hang Seng index, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi all finished 11% in the green.
Tech stocks provided the bulk of the buoyancy. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) certainly had their time in the sun, but the hype surrounding AI also spilled over into the rank-and-file tech companies. Intel (INTC) roared back into life following share acquisitions by Nvidia and the US government, pushing its stock 50% higher in the third quarter. Investors who were savvy enough to invest in Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) meanwhile are laughing their way to the bank, as the humble data storage companies rose 64% and 88% respectively in Q3.
Accusations are once again being levelled at the ridiculous price-to-earnings ratios among some of the larger caps, particularly as entire sectors of the S&P 500 continue to be ignored. For now, hype is everything and investors are content to delay the inevitable rotation back into more defensive stocks.
Gold made modest gains yesterday but the optimism failed to spread to the broader precious metals market, with silver, platinum, palladium and copper all falling on the day. Gold and silver pushed higher this morning, with gold timidly advancing into unknown territory beyond $3,860 and silver extending to $47.50 per ounce, but buyers are not displaying as much enthusiasm so far today.
October 01, 2025
Every new forex trader has ‘that moment’. You know the one; you are scrolling through Instagram and there he is, some guy leaning out of a rented Lamborghini, sipping something neon from a champagne glass, and promising you can “retire by next Friday” if you just buy his $997, exclusive trading course. Of course, you’re sold, because who wouldn’t want to swap their rusty old Ford for a Lambo in just a few trading days?
That’s the spark for most people: the promise of financial freedom. The idea that you can Walz into your boss’s office, hand in your resignation with a smug grin, and spend the rest of your life trading from a hammock while coconuts fall gracefully all around you. Forex is marketed as the adult version of winning the lottery, but with more charts and fewer losing tickets.
There’s also the thrill factor. The forex market is the largest in the world — trillions of dollars changing hands every day. To a newbie, it feels like an exclusive VIP club where fortunes are made at the click of a button. And the entry fee? Just a couple hundred bucks and an internet connection. Sounds like a bargain compared to that yacht you’ll soon be ordering, right?
Here’s the spoiler: the reality doesn’t usually involve champagne, yachts, or super cars. It involves charts, losses, and enough coffee to keep a bigfoot awake. The truth is that most of those “gurus” are making more money from selling you the idea of trading than from trading itself. Fact.
Still, that said, without that spark — the dream of escaping the daily grind — most of us wouldn’t take the plunge. Just remember it’s OK to dream big but keep your expectations somewhere between “rich overnight” and “living in your mum’s spare room after blowing your first live account.”
Okay, so now that I’ve crushed your Lamborghini dream, let’s talk about the positives, because there really are plenty. Forex trading isn’t all doom, gloom, and blown out accounts. If it is done right, it can be exciting, flexible, and (eventually) financially rewarding.
First up, accessibility. Unlike some financial markets where you need to consider selling your left kidney to get started, forex is open to pretty much anyone with a computer, an internet connection, and a couple of spare dollars. You don’t need to be the Wolf of Wall Street or wear an Amarni suit. You can literally trade in your underpants while eating your cornflakes; and believe me, plenty of traders do just that.
Then there’s the sheer size of the market. Forex is the biggest financial playground in the world, with trillions of dollars moving and changing hands every single day. That means there’s always opportunity. Stocks can go quiet, commodities can get boring, but currencies? They are like hyperactive kids after eating too much sugar; always bouncing around, giving you plenty of chances to make a move.
And let’s not forget playing and learning with demo accounts. These are basically training wheels for trading. You get to practice with fake money, make every rookie mistake in the book, and still walk away with your dignity (and your actual bank balance) intact. It’s like playing a video game version of trading, except instead of shooting bad guys you’re learning why you shouldn’t put your entire account on going long on gold five minutes before a major news announcement.
Forex trading is flexible. The market runs 24 hours a day, five days a week. Whether you’re a night owl, an early bird, or someone who just can’t sleep, there’s always a market open somewhere. Unlike your local bar, forex doesn’t shut at 11 p.m.
So yes, there are plenty of good points. It’s accessible, it’s dynamic, and it’s always available. Just remember it’s not supposed to be easy money, but it is an opportunity if you approach it with the right mindset.
Okay, so we’ve covered the warm and cosy positives. Now let’s talk about the bits nobody on Instagram likes to talk about, the dark side of forex trading. Spoiler alert: it’s not all yachts, Ferraris, and endless vacations. It’s more like caffeine-fuelled, long nights, emotional breakdowns, and wondering if you should have stuck with your steady 9-5.
The first harsh reality? The learning curve is steep. Trading isn’t something you “get” overnight, no matter what that guy with the slick YouTube ad says. You can’t just watch three videos, memorize a candlestick pattern, and suddenly become Warren Buffett’s currency-trading long lost cousin. It takes time, mistakes, and more chart-watching than is healthy for your eyesight.
Then there’s the emotional rollercoaster. Picture this: you’re up 50 bucks on a trade, you’re feeling like a genius, then — BOOM! — the market flips, and you’re suddenly down a $100. Your heart sinks, your palms sweat, and you start whispering sweet hail Mary’s to the trading gods. Reality check: the market doesn’t care about you or your prayers.
Most new traders also learn the hard way that revenge trading is a thing. You lose money, you get mad, and you immediately jump back in with a bigger trade to “get it all back.” Reality check number two: this usually ends with you losing even faster. It’s like trying to put out a fire by throwing gasoline on it, super dramatic, but not at all very sensible.
And let’s not forget the misinformation problem. Social media is full of self-proclaimed “gurus” flashing screenshots of their supposed $50,000 trades. Here’s the catch: a lot of them are making more money selling you a dream than trading themselves. If their real edge was that good, they’d be too busy compounding their millions to bother running a TikTok channel.
There is an old saying; ‘do as I say, not as I do’. Most so-called gurus are fake. If you were making millions from trading, could you be that bothered to share you elite winning strategy with others? I will leave you to ponder on that one.
So yes, forex has its dark side. The steep learning curve, the emotions, the misinformation — they’re all part of the package. The key isn’t avoiding these pitfalls (because you will trip over them at some point). The real key is surviving them long enough to and to learn from any mistakes you make along the way.
If you’re new to forex, you’ll quickly discover the real challenge isn’t learning candlestick patterns or calculating pip values — it’s wading through the swamp of misinformation out there. The internet is bursting with self-proclaimed experts, all screaming for your attention, and most of them have the credibility of a used-car salesman with a fake Rolex.
Let’s start with the obvious: The social media “gurus.” You have seen the type; they pose next to rented sports cars, flash screenshots of “$5,000 trades,” and sell you the dream of financial freedom, if you just buy their course, mentorship, or “exclusive signals.” Here’s a tip: if someone’s making more money from teaching you how to trade than from trading itself, you’re not looking at a guru, you’re looking at a marketer, and a clever one at that.
Next, the signal sellers. These are the folks who promise to do all the thinking for you. Just pay them a monthly fee and they’ll tell you when to buy and when to sell. Sounds easy, right? Except most trading signals are about as reliable as the weather forecast in the UK. Sure, you might catch the occasional sunny day, but most of the time you’re left wet, cold, and wondering why you didn’t just look outside yourself. Often you have to join a private Telegram channel and sit and wait for the signals to drop in. By the time you have digested the information and put the trade on you have missed the suggested entry point and you sit and watch the trade lose.
Then there’s the army of “get rich quick” content. You’ll see headlines like “Turn $100 into $10,000 in 30 Days!” and for a moment, you’ll think, “Hey, maybe that’s possible.” Trust me - It’s not. Not unless your definition of “possible” includes blowing up your account and begging your bank for forgiveness.
So how do you navigate this mess?
• Check credentials: Real traders don’t need to rent Lambos to prove they know what they’re doing.
• Follow the money: If their income is coming from selling courses, not trading, that’s a definite red flag.
• Use YOUR common sense: If it sounds too good to be true, it is. (Unless you believe in fairy’s and unicorns.)
The truth is, there are legitimate sources of forex education out there; brokers’ educational hubs, established trading communities, and even boring old textbooks. They may not look as glamorous on Snapchat, but they’re far more valuable than any so-called guru promising instant riches.
Here’s where most new traders get it wrong: they think “success” in forex means turning a $200 account into a private island by Christmas. Sorry to ruin the fantasy, but that’s not success, that is just a daydream.
Real success in forex looks very different. It’s not about making a fortune overnight; it’s about building consistency over time. If you can grow your account steadily, month after month, without blowing it up in a moment of rage-trading, then congratulations, you are already way ahead of most newbie traders.
Okay, let’s talk numbers for a second. Professional traders don’t aim for 100% returns in a week. They’re thrilled with 3–10% a month. Doesn’t sound sexy, does it? But compound that over a year, and suddenly you’re looking at serious growth. The difference is, they’re playing the long game while the Instagram guru is playing with make-believe.
Success is also about risk management. A trader who makes 5% a month while sleeping soundly at night is more successful than someone doubling their account one week and wiping it out the next. If you’re constantly stressed, glued to your screen, and shouting at your laptop like it owes you money, you’re not succeeding - you are gambling!
And here’s the kicker: success in forex isn’t just about money. It’s about developing the discipline to stick to your plan, the patience to wait for the right setups, and the humility to admit when you’re wrong. If you can do those three things, you’re already more “successful” than the majority of people who try trading and quit after their first blown account.
So, what does success mean? Consistency, discipline, and realistic expectations. It might not look sexy on social media, but it looks fantastic in your bank account over the long term.
By now you’ve probably realised that forex trading isn’t just pressing “buy” and waiting for your bank balance to explode. It takes time, practice, and a stubborn refusal to quit after the first disaster and one or after that. To help you on your way, here are some golden nuggets of wisdom, think of them as your survival kit for the wild world of forex:
1. Start small (like, really small).
Don’t remortgage your house or drain your life savings for your “new trading empire.” Open a demo account, practice and then start with a micro account where you can trade tiny lot sizes. If you mess up, and you will, it’s better to lose coffee money rather than the family silver.
2. Keep a trading journal.
Yes, it sounds boring, and it is. You’ll thank me later. Write down your trades, why you took them, and what happened. Over time, patterns will emerge, both in the market and in your own behaviour. Think of it as therapy, but cheaper.
3. Risk management is your best friend.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose. A good rule of thumb? Risk 1–2% of your account per trade. Go past that, and you’re basically gambling with the enthusiasm of a casino regular on a losing streak.
4. Don’t copy other traders blindly.
Following random signals or copying trades without understanding why is like cooking with your eyes closed. You might get something edible, but chances are it’ll be a disaster. Learn to make your own decisions.
5. Accept that losing is part of the game.
Yes, you’ll lose trades. Everyone does. Even the best traders in the world take losses — the difference is, they don’t let one bad trade turn into a meltdown. Shrug it off, learn, and move on.
6. Protect your mental health.
Trading can be stressful, especially if you’re staring at charts 18 hours a day. Take regular breaks. Go outside. Talk to an actual human being occasionally. The market will still be there when you get back.
7. Keep your expectations realistic.
Aim for steady growth, not instant riches. Remember, doubling your account in a week usually means halving it the next.
In short: be patient, be disciplined, and don’t take financial advice from someone who films TikTok’s memes in front of a rented Ferrari.
So, there you have it — the good, the bad, and the occasionally ugly side of forex trading. It’s a world full of opportunity, but also full of pitfalls, myths, and far too many people praying on your hopes and dreams.
If you’re starting out, the most important thing to remember is this: forex isn’t a shortcut to overnight wealth. It’s a skill. Like learning to play guitar or bake sourdough bread, it takes practice, mistakes, and probably a few embarrassing failures before you get good. The difference is, with forex the stakes are a bit higher than a badly played chord or a burnt loaf — your money is on the line.
But don’t let that scare you. If you approach trading with curiosity, discipline, and a healthy sense of humour, you’ll already be ahead of most people who dive in expecting instant riches. You’ll learn to separate fact from fiction, spot the “gurus” from the marketers, and find your own rhythm in the market.
And let’s be honest: it is exciting. The idea that you can sit at your desk, place a trade, and potentially profit from global events happening in real time? That is pretty amazing. But the real magic isn’t in chasing quick wins — it’s in building consistency, protecting your capital, and watching your skills improve over time.
Yes, dream big but keep your feet firmly on the ground. Success in forex isn’t about buying a yacht or sipping cocktails on a beach (though hey, if you get there one day, send me a postcard). Success is about growth of your account, your mindset, and your patience.
Now go on, rookie, get learning, get practising, and remember: the charts don’t lie, but social media often does.
September 30, 2025
We may be witnessing history in the making with regard to precious metals. The shocking rise in silver, platinum and palladium left many investors stunned last week, as all three metals continued their ascent, facing no resistance on their path higher. Silver closed last Friday’s session at $46 per ounce – $3 higher than the week prior – and is now up 60% since the start of the year. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium both achieved double-digit gains last week with the former now rising to prices not seen in over a decade. Precious metals are rising in unison once again this morning, with gold tapping $3,800 and silver striking $47 per ounce. A reminder that silver is now only $3 away from a new all-time high.
The global pivot towards safe-haven assets is an increasingly popular trade, but only partially explains the rise in prices observed so far. On the other side of the equation, the supply side is struggling to keep up with the relentless demand. Gold and silver ETFs are soaking up huge inflows of cash from institutions and retail alike. Jewellers are reporting a scarcity of scrap gold because so few are selling in the current market. Mining companies around the world are having to increase output targets to cover the renewed demand, with many reporting record-high profits.
The first Friday of the month lies ahead, but non-farm payrolls may have to wait. The US government is facing a possible shutdown unless funding legislation is passed before the end of the fiscal year on the 30th of September. As grateful as we are for the work carried out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, its operations are considered non-essential and will therefore be affected by the shutdown unless such is averted. If NFPs are released as planned, forecasts are currently indicating 39,000 new jobs. A low figure on the face of it, but the labour force participation rate is shrinking rapidly due to huge numbers of workers reaching retirement age. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.3%.
Tomorrow’s JOLT survey on the other hand should be published in a timely manner with or without a government shutdown and may offer some emergency insights on the US labour market. Wednesday’s ADP employment change will likewise be unaffected by any disruption to federal operations. Wednesday also marks the start of China’s Golden Week, meaning Chinese markets will remain closed until the 8th of October. Beyond American employment figures, this week features a heavy dose of manufacturing and services PMIs from the four corners of the world, while the Reserve Bank of Australia convenes tomorrow to decide the interest rate on the Australian dollar. For now, all eyes are on precious metals.
September 29, 2025
Investors shunned gold yesterday, turning instead towards the wider precious metals market. Industrial demand is driving the likes of silver, platinum, palladium and copper to highs not seen in months, or in some cases, years. Silver is an essential element for solar panels, batteries and other electronics, while platinum is crucial for systems such as catalytic converters, used to reduce emissions. Given their critical role in green energy technologies, both metals exploded to the upside yesterday following an announcement from Chinese Premier Xi Jinping, who pledged new green energy targets for the world’s second-largest economy. Silver pushed past $45 per ounce on Thursday, meaning it only has another $5 to go before setting a new, all-time record high. Meanwhile, platinum gained over 3% over the same time frame to close comfortably above $1,500 an ounce, matching prices from back in 2013. Palladium and copper are also on the front foot this week, with the former up 9% since Monday.
Second-quarter GDP figures were revised to the upside yesterday, indicating that the US economy grew by 3.8% in Q2, surpassing initial estimates of just 3%. The correction was mostly due to a revision in consumer spending as opposed to any rebalancing of trade flows. Yesterday also revealed better-than-expected jobless claims, an improved trade balance and higher durable goods orders. Strong growth figures obviously counter the narrative of a troubled economy, which in turn temper the Fed’s willingness to intervene too drastically during the next couple of FOMC meetings. Interest rate traders are still leaning in favour of a further 50 basis points in cuts before the end of the year but FedWatch is currently only pointing to a 60% chance of that happening. The combined data led to a strong move in the dollar, which dragged the DXY back up to the mid-98 level by yesterday’s close.
The shift in expectations contributed to a broad selloff in assets, with US and European indices ceding ground during yesterday’s session and Asian stock markets reacting poorly this morning. The selloff extended to cryptocurrencies, leading to Bitcoin falling below $110k and Ethereum losing $4,000. Expectations could shift again later today however, with the release of the latest PCE Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The PCE data has long been held in high regard by the Fed and so any unexpected reading will have further consequences for interest rate predictions. Busy end to the week.
September 26, 2025
After hitting record intra-day highs on Tuesday, US indices were quickly brought back down to reality after Chairman Powell suggested that by many measures, equity prices were “fairly highly valued”. Not the harshest of judgements by any means, but stocks had been looking for an excuse to come down from recent highs and Powell’s speech seemed to fit the bill. The Fed Chairman hastened to add that this is "not a time of elevated financial stability risks". Futures contracts are marginally in the black going into today’s session.
Powell’s words also reached the ears of precious metals traders, cutting short yesterday’s rallies in gold and silver. Gold came within $10 of $3,800 before giving up some of its gains, while silver closed the day almost flat, although crucially remained above $44 per ounce. With nowhere else to go, the recent gains in gold and silver are currently spilling over into other metals, namely platinum and palladium. Platinum rose over 4% yesterday to breach $1,500 for the first time since 2014 and both metals continued to surge in early morning trading in Asia. The current climate heavily favours precious metals as central banks around the world continue to move away from US treasuries. Given the lower rates on the USD, and the prospect of even lower rates in the near future, hoarding dollars now makes less sense than at previous times. With stock markets at record highs, precious metals are seen as the obvious play by many investors.
Cryptocurrencies on the other hand are facing a bit of a conundrum. The massive liquidation event on Monday culminated in over $1.5 billion in bullish positions being wiped out, but despite the selloff, prices have shown surprising resilience. The larger caps have incurred only modest losses so far but the overall direction of travel remains unclear. The rise in prices seen across cryptocurrencies over the summer was fuelled in large part by firms publicly launching digital-asset treasuries.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy acquired another 850 BTC on Monday, bumping the company’s holdings up to a colossal 640,000 BTC. Japan’s Metaplanet meanwhile purchased 5,419 BTC at the start of the week, making the company the fifth largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 25,555 BTC in its war chest. Funds far and wide continue to top up their stacks with various digital assets, the obvious question being how the sustained buying pressure will translate into price action.
September 24, 2025
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