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Financial Analyst/Content Writer, RADEX MARKETS
Lawrence J. came from a strong technical and engineering background before pivoting into a more financial role later on in his career. Always interested in international finance, Lawrence is experienced in both traditional markets as well as the emerging crypto markets. He now serves as the financial writer for RADEX MARKETS.
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We may be witnessing history in the making with regard to precious metals. The shocking rise in silver, platinum and palladium left many investors stunned last week, as all three metals continued their ascent, facing no resistance on their path higher. Silver closed last Friday’s session at $46 per ounce – $3 higher than the week prior – and is now up 60% since the start of the year. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium both achieved double-digit gains last week with the former now rising to prices not seen in over a decade. Precious metals are rising in unison once again this morning, with gold tapping $3,800 and silver striking $47 per ounce. A reminder that silver is now only $3 away from a new all-time high.
The global pivot towards safe-haven assets is an increasingly popular trade, but only partially explains the rise in prices observed so far. On the other side of the equation, the supply side is struggling to keep up with the relentless demand. Gold and silver ETFs are soaking up huge inflows of cash from institutions and retail alike. Jewellers are reporting a scarcity of scrap gold because so few are selling in the current market. Mining companies around the world are having to increase output targets to cover the renewed demand, with many reporting record-high profits.
The first Friday of the month lies ahead, but non-farm payrolls may have to wait. The US government is facing a possible shutdown unless funding legislation is passed before the end of the fiscal year on the 30th of September. As grateful as we are for the work carried out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, its operations are considered non-essential and will therefore be affected by the shutdown unless such is averted. If NFPs are released as planned, forecasts are currently indicating 39,000 new jobs. A low figure on the face of it, but the labour force participation rate is shrinking rapidly due to huge numbers of workers reaching retirement age. Unemployment is expected to remain at 4.3%.
Tomorrow’s JOLT survey on the other hand should be published in a timely manner with or without a government shutdown and may offer some emergency insights on the US labour market. Wednesday’s ADP employment change will likewise be unaffected by any disruption to federal operations. Wednesday also marks the start of China’s Golden Week, meaning Chinese markets will remain closed until the 8th of October. Beyond American employment figures, this week features a heavy dose of manufacturing and services PMIs from the four corners of the world, while the Reserve Bank of Australia convenes tomorrow to decide the interest rate on the Australian dollar. For now, all eyes are on precious metals.
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