As the clock struck midnight on Capitol Hill, the Senate had not managed to agree to a new funding bill, meaning all non-essential government functions have effectively shut down. Hundreds of thousands of government employees will be furloughed until further notice. Crucially for financial markets, the public bodies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data are no longer in operation, which means that there will be no NFP this Friday. However unlikely, it is possible that a deal will be reached over the coming day or two, but for now traders will have to navigate the charts without US economic data.
Many stock markets around the world ended Q3 on a high note yesterday. The third quarter was a roaring success for US indices, with the Dow Jones gaining 5% over the last three months, the S&P 500 climbing almost 8% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 11% over the same time frame. Such performances are all the more impressive given September’s reputation as one of the toughest months for US stocks. In the UK, the FTSE 100 also overperformed, closing the quarter 6.7% higher; meanwhile in Asia, the Hong Kong-based Hang Seng index, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi all finished 11% in the green.
Tech stocks provided the bulk of the buoyancy. Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) certainly had their time in the sun, but the hype surrounding AI also spilled over into the rank-and-file tech companies. Intel (INTC) roared back into life following share acquisitions by Nvidia and the US government, pushing its stock 50% higher in the third quarter. Investors who were savvy enough to invest in Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) meanwhile are laughing their way to the bank, as the humble data storage companies rose 64% and 88% respectively in Q3.
Accusations are once again being levelled at the ridiculous price-to-earnings ratios among some of the larger caps, particularly as entire sectors of the S&P 500 continue to be ignored. For now, hype is everything and investors are content to delay the inevitable rotation back into more defensive stocks.
Gold made modest gains yesterday but the optimism failed to spread to the broader precious metals market, with silver, platinum, palladium and copper all falling on the day. Gold and silver pushed higher this morning, with gold timidly advancing into unknown territory beyond $3,860 and silver extending to $47.50 per ounce, but buyers are not displaying as much enthusiasm so far today.
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