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New Year – new beginnings. Financial markets are back in full swing after a well-deserved break over the festive season. The Dollar wasted no time in setting the tone, surging higher on the first trading day of the year and wreaking havoc on the major currency pairs. The Pound Sterling and the Euro recovered somewhat the following day but remain perched above multi-month and multi-year lows respectively.
Gold appears uncommitted to a particular direction so far and remains below its pre-election record high. Nevertheless, the precious metal gained $18 last week to close at $2,640 an ounce. The more interesting development in commodities however is a potential uptick in interest in crude oil. After months of languishing in the doldrums, oil prices gained some ground last week, pushing Brent Crude to $76 and WTI to $73 a barrel. The cold weather front in much of the northern hemisphere is playing its part to increase demand in the immediate term, but on longer time frames oil markets are also factoring in the promise of economic stimulus measures in China. In a bid to encourage growth, Beijing plans to increase funding via the bond market whereas the People’s Bank of China will slash reserve requirements and reduce lending rates. Last year, oil imports decreased in Asia for the first time since 2021, with China in particular importing around 2% less than the previous year according to figures up until November. Then there is the possibility of sanctions against Iran, which could further tighten global oil supplies and increase prices as a result.
Just like the rest of the financial world, the economic calendar is also finally emerging from winter hibernation. Services PMIs from around the world scatter the schedule today, before European CPI and employment data on Tuesday. FOMC minutes for the December meeting are set to be released on Wednesday, coupled with remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Many other board members will also deliver comments the following day. NFPs are back on the menu on Friday after being carried over from last week. Happy New Year.
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