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MARKET WATCH
Market watch: 11th December 2024
dezembro 2024
Markets are quiet this morning ahead of the more substantive data releases later today. US inflation figures await us this afternoon, as well as the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision. The target rate on the Canadian Dollar is currently 3.75% and the BoC is expected to lower this by another 50 bps. Cracks in the Canadian economy, particularly in the labour market, have prompted the central bank to lower rates four times already this year, putting a lot of pressure on the Loonie. USDCAD is now approaching $1.42, a 7% increase year-to-date. Of course, on the other side of the equation, we only have a week to go before the Fed’s next decision. Interest rate traders are now heavily pricing in a 25-bps cut but this could change if we see CPI figures significantly outside of expectations. Currency traders will also have to contend with the Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank on Thursday, both currently expected to enact 25-bps cuts of their own. Gold finally perked up this week. After a couple of weeks in the doldrums, bullion prices experienced some long-awaited buying pressure, challenging $2,700 an ounce yesterday. The buying came on behalf of the People’s Bank of China, which resumed its accumulation of gold after a six-month hiatus. Silver prices also rose, flirting with $32 an ounce over the last few days. Bitcoin experienced a minor pullback early this week, as did the wider crypto markets.
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SALA DE IMPRENSA DA RM
Rollover of futures contracts in December
09 dezembro, 2024
Please note that the contracts listed below will roll over on the following dates: *Please note that the specific trading hours above may be subject to adjustment by liquidity providers without prior notice.   Please note: 1.  If the price of the new contract is higher than the price of the old contract, the long position will be charged a re-balancing fee, and the short position will receive a re-balancing fee. 2. If the price of the new contract is lower than the price of the old contract, the long position will receive a re-balancing fee, and the short position will be charged a re-balancing fee. 3. In the meantime, since the Futures Contracts need to be adjusted, we will suspend internal transfers for all accounts under the same owner half an hour before and after the opening of the market on the Expiration Day.   Please carefully consider the risks that your account may encounter, and make sure there are sufficient funds in your trading account to prevent margin close-outs due to insufficient margin. If you do not want your positions to be rolled-over, please close your positions before the rollover.
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CALENDÁRIO ECONÓMICO
( GMT +03:00 13:06 )
March 26, 2024
2024-12-11 11:00:00+00:00ZAVendas a Retalho em termos mensais out.
2024-12-11 11:00:00+00:00ZAVendas a retalho em termos anuais out.
2024-12-11 13:30:00+00:00USTaxa de Inflação em termos mensais nov.
TRADER'S PICK
Why is the Dollar rising?
novembro 25, 2024
Barring those who have been living under a rock over the last couple of months, traders may have noticed the meteoric rise in the US Dollar since the end of September. The Yen, the Mexican Peso and the Euro in particular have been getting hammered, the latter even threatening to reach parity with the USD. So why is this happening? “Trump” is the first thing that will come to the minds of many, and certainly explains part of what is going on, but there are other factors at play here. The Dollar had in fact been falling consistently since June, losing over 5% on the DXY before undergoing a violent reversal at the end of September. A major reason for this decline was simple interest rate positioning. Markets were expecting the Fed to rapidly lower interest rates on the Dollar due to a number of worrying economic data points earlier in the year. Gradually, markets realised these points were overplayed and rate cuts were not that necessary after all. The Fed has indeed been remarkably careful in lowering rates so far this year. Essentially, the Dollar was severely oversold. Eventually, the pendulum peaked and began to swing back. It just so happened that this coincided with a growing sentiment that a Trump presidency was once again on the cards. Betting markets painted a much clearer picture than the polls this year and it turns out they were right on the money. At this point, let us remind ourselves that the Euro makes up the majority of the DXY weighting, 57% in fact. So what is going on in Europe? The problems in the US economy may indeed have been overstated, but the same cannot be said for the European economy. First of all, Germany and France, the Eurozone’s largest contributors, continue to exhibit poor manufacturing figures as well as non-existent investor confidence. The European Central Bank is now on the difficult path of having to reduce interest rates in an effort to stimulate growth, on a currency that has already devalued significantly in recent months. On the other side of the Atlantic, the Fed is under no such pressure to reduce rates as quickly, having a lot more room to manoeuvre within a more robust economy. Rates on the Dollar are currently 4.75%, whereas the ECB has cut rates on the Euro down to 3.4%. Not a huge difference, but it is looking increasingly likely that this gap will widen as opposed to narrow. A growing interest rate differential will only put more pressure on the common currency, further devaluing the Euro and bolstering the Dollar. With that out of the way, what about President Donald Trump? Why would a Trump presidency strengthen the Dollar? In a nutshell: protectionism. Protectionist policies will increase tariffs on imported goods, which will likely reduce the amount of goods imported into the US, which affects the trade balance. Currently, the US has a trade deficit of about $80 billion. If the proposed measures are enough to shift this into a trade surplus, this will increase demand for the Greenback as the rest of the world needs the Dollar to pay for US products. Tariffs on foreign goods would also make domestic products more attractive, further favouring American businesses and the US economy in general. A minor caveat is that protectionist policies over a long enough time-frame can result in higher prices, potentially leading to inflation, which would devalue the Dollar. A much larger caveat lies in how other nations are likely to respond to additional tariffs, potentially leading to trade wars. What’s next for the Dollar? President Trump will inherit a very different economy from the one he got in 2017, so looking at historical data can only be so enlightening. The response of the likes of Europe, Mexico and China are equally difficult to predict. The Euro has only dipped below parity once since 2002 and even then it only stayed there for a couple of months. Place your bets.
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